长三角城市群入境旅游流的时空演化与空间效应研究  

Research on the Spatial-temporal Evolution and Spatial Effects of Inbound Tourist Flows in the Urban Agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta

作　　者：王兆峰[1] 邱梦真 WANG Zhaofeng;QIU Mengzhen(Tourism College,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学旅游学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期96-108,共13页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology（Social Sciences）

基　　金：国家自科基金项目(41771162)。

摘　　要：科学研判入境旅游流的时空分异规律和动态演化特征,对推进入境旅游一体化高质量发展大有裨益。采用探索性空间数据分析、重心—标准差椭圆模型和空间马尔科夫链模型识别2005—2020年长三角城市群入境旅游流的时空分异及其动态演化规律,并运用空间杜宾模型探析入境旅游流的溢出效应。结果表明:研究期内入境旅游流整体呈缓慢增长态势,变异系数和相对基尼系数呈小幅度波动上升趋势,表明研究区入境旅游流相对差异总体较为平稳。空间上呈显著集聚特征,但高低集聚区渐趋缩小,入境旅游流分布日益空间均衡化;入境旅游流重心轨迹呈“东南—西北”移动趋势,西部地区入境旅游流增长速度较快;标准差椭圆主要位于长三角中部偏东地区,椭圆面积样本末期大于样本初期,东部是入境旅游发展的主要区域,入境旅游流发展的溢出效应逐渐增强。入境旅游流存在显著的“状态锁定”和“俱乐部趋同”现象,整体有序向高水平方向跃迁,与高值区为邻自身向上转移的概率将增大。入境旅游流具有显著的空间溢出效应,经济发展水平、对外开放程度和旅游基础设施是推动本地及邻地入境旅游流增长的重要因素,旅游资源禀赋、区位交通条件显著促进本地入境旅游流增长,对邻地的溢出影响则显著为负。Scientific research on the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns and dynamic evolution characteristics of inbound tourism flows is beneficial to promoting the integrated and high-quality development of inbound tourism.Exploratory spatial data analysis,center-of-gravity-standard deviation ellipse model and spatial Markov chain model are used to identify the spatio-temporal divergence of inbound tourism flows and their dynamic evolution patterns in the city cluster of Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2020,and the spatial Durbin model is applied to explore the spillover effects of inbound tourism flows.The results show that:the overall inbound tourism flow in the study period shows a slow growth trend,and the coefficient of variation and relative Gini coefficient show a small fluctuating upward trend,indicating that the relative difference of the inbound tourism flow in the study area is relatively stable in general.The spatial characteristics of the inbound tourism flow show a significant agglomeration,but the high and low agglomeration zones tend to be narrowed down,and the distribution of inbound tourism flow is getting more and more spatially balanced.The trajectory of the gravity center of the inbound tourism flow shows a“southeast-northwest”moving trend,with a faster growth of inbound tourism flows in the western region;the standard deviation ellipse is mainly located in the central-eastern region of the Yangtze River Delta,and the area of the ellipse at the end of the sample is larger than that at the beginning of the sample.There is a significant“state lock”and“club convergence”phenomenon in the inbound tourism flow,the overall order to the high level of the direction of the leap,and the probability of upward transfer with the high value of the area neighboring itself will increase.The inbound tourism flow has a significant spatial spillover effect.The level of economic development,the degree of openness and tourism infrastructure are important factors to promote the growth of local and neighb

关 键 词：入境旅游流 时空演变 空间溢出 长三角城市群 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]