基于CMIP6多模式集合对长江上游地区暴雨的预估研究  

Prediction of Rainstorm in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

作　　者：张粟瑜 岑思弦[2] 赖欣 张戈 张哲浩 姚思源 ZHANG Suyu;CEN Sixian;LAI Xin;ZHANG Ge;ZHANG Zhehao;YAO Siyuan(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Joint Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu Plain Urban Meteorology and Environment Observation and Research Station of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China;Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室/气候与环境变化联合实验室/成都平原城市气象与环境四川省野外科学观测研究站,四川成都610225 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072

出　　处：《高原气象》2024年第3期667-682,共16页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42030611,42075081);四川省自然科学基金青年项目(2023NSFSC0748);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0103);成都信息工程大学科技创新能力提升计划项目(KYQN202319)。

摘　　要：为更好地应对长江上游地区未来气候变化导致的暴雨事件,本文利用1990-2014年长江上游地区687个气象观测站日降水资料及第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase6,CMIP6)中的24个全球气候模式的模拟结果,研究了该地区2021-2099年的年平均暴雨量、暴雨天数和暴雨强度在不同共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSPs)情景下的时空变化特征及其不确定性。研究结果表明:(1)相对参考时段(1995-2014年),长江上游地区预估总时段(2021-2099年)及21世纪末期(2080-2099年)的年平均暴雨量、暴雨天数和暴雨强度在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下都以增多增强为主,在SSP5-8.5情景下的增幅最大,且模式间预估方向的一致性及预估值的确定性都随排放的增加而增加。预估总时段的暴雨量、暴雨天数和暴雨强度在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下的分布相似,但与SSP5-8.5情景下的分布有所不同。21世纪末期暴雨量及天数在三种情景下的分布相似,暴雨强度变化的分布在SSP5-8.5情景下不同于SSP1-2.6及SSP2-4.5情景;(2)相对参考时段,三种情景下长江上游的暴雨量在预估总时段分别以3.5 mm·(10a)^(-1),5.4 mm·(10a)^(-1),14.7 mm·(10a)^(-1)的速率增加,暴雨天数分别以0.045 d·(10a)^(-1),0.07 d·(10a)^(-1),0.18 d·(10a)^(-1)的速率增加,暴雨强度则分别以0.37 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),0.78 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),1.94 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1)的速率增强,都通过99%信度检验及同号率检验,预估值确定性较高的时期都出现在21世纪末期SSP5-8.5情景下;(3)三种情景下,预估总时段的暴雨量、暴雨天数和暴雨强度在空间上都主要呈增加趋势,其中藏东南地区的暴雨量及暴雨天数的增速最大。暴雨强度增速最大的地区在SSP1-2.6情景下出现在四川北部,而SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下出现在云南北部;(4)三种情景下21世纪前期(2021-2040年)暴雨量、暴雨天数和暴To prepare for the heavy rainfall resulting from future climate change in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,this paper analyzed daily precipitation data from 687 meteorological stations in the region between 1990 and 2014,as well as simulation results from 24 global climate models(GCMs)provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The spatio-temporal characteristics and uncertainties of the mean annual rainstorm volume,rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River during 2021-2099 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)scenarios are studied.The results show:(1)Compared to the reference period of 1995-2014,the mean annual volume,days and intensity of rainstorm in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are projected to increase and strengthen during the whole projection period of 2021-2099 and the end of the 21st century(2080-2099)under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The largest increase is observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The predicted direction is consistent and the certainty of the projection among models increases with higher emissions.The distribution of rainstorm volume,days and intensity during 2021-2099 is similar under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios,but differs from that of the SSP5-8.5 scenario.By the end of the 21st century,the distribution of volume and days of rainstorm is similar under the three scenarios.However,the distribution of rainstorm intensity under the SSP5-8.5 scenario differs from that under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios.(2)Relative to the reference period,the rainstorm volume in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River increases by 3.5 mm·(10a)^(-1),5.4 mm·(10a)^(-1) and 14.7 mm·(10a)^(-1) under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5,respectively.The rainstorm days increases by 0.045 d·(10a)^(-1),0.07 d·(10a)^(-1) and 0.18 d·(10a)^(-1) under the three scenarios,respectively.The rainstorm intensity increases by 0.37 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),0.78 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1) and 1.94 mm·d^(-1)·(10a)^(-1) u

关 键 词：长江上游地区 CMIP6 预估 暴雨 不确定性 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]