2022年西北太平洋和南海台风预报精度评定  

Verification on Typhoon Forecasts over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022

作　　者：杨梦琪 陈国民[1,2,3] 张喜平 汤立春 白莉娜 郭蓉[1,2,3] YANG Mengqi;CHEN Guomin;ZHANG Xiping;TANG Lichun;BAI Lina;GUO Rong(Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,Shanghai 200030;Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center,Shanghai 201306;Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Tropical Cyclone,CMA,Shanghai 200030)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [2]亚太台风研究中心,上海201306 [3]中国气象局台风数值预报重点实验室,上海200030

出　　处：《气象》2024年第5期630-641,共12页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000805);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J027、CXFZ2024J006);中国气象局重点创新团队(台风团队)(CMA2023ZD06)共同资助。

摘　　要：评定2022年西北太平洋和南海台风业务定位定强、路径和强度预报精度,结果表明:2022年,官方台风预报机构的定位误差与台风强度等级呈负相关;中国气象局中央气象台在各强度等级的定位平均误差最小,全年定位平均误差(15.4 km)较2021年(19.7 km)减小21.8%,定强平均绝对误差(1.3 m·s^(-1))较2021年(1.4 m·s^(-1))略减小。主观预报和客观预报方法的路径预报平均误差较2021年普遍有所减小,而强度预报平均绝对误差较2021年普遍有所增大。SSTC、CMA-TRAMS和ECMWF-IFS路径预报技巧评分相对较高。NCEP-GFS、JMA-GSM、CMA-TRAMS和CMA-TYM强度预报系统性偏差不明显,NCEP-GFS、HWRF和CMA-TRAMS强度预报技巧评分相对较高。Operational positioning and intensity estimation errors,as well as track and intensity forecast errors of typhoons over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022 are evaluated according to the“Regulations on Typhoon Operations and Services”.The results show that in 2022,the positioning errors made by the official typhoon forecasting agencies displayed a negative correlation with the typhoon intensity grades.The mean error of position estimation made by the National Meteorological Centre(NMC),China Meteorological Administration(CMA),were the smallest at each typhoon intensity grade.In 2022,the mean error of position estimation(15.4 km)made by NMC was 21.8%lower than 19.7 km in 2021,and the mean absolute error of intensity estimation(1.3 m·s^(-1))made by NMC was slightly smaller than the value(1.4 m·s^(-1))in 2021.Relative to 2021,the mean errors of track forecast by subjective and objective forecasts in 2022 were generally reduced,but the mean absolute errors of intensity forecasts were generally increased.Track forecast skill scores by SSTC,CMA-TRAMS,and ECMWF-IFS were relatively high.Intensity forecast systematic biases by NCEP-GFS,JMA-GSM,CMA-TRAMS,and CMA-TYM were insignificant,while forecast skill scores by NCEP-GFS,HWRF,and CMA-TRAMS were relatively high.

关 键 词：台风 定位定强误差 路径预报误差 强度预报误差 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]