1961―2022年新疆棉花花铃期高温热害时空变化规律研究  

The temporal and spatial variation of high temperature and heat damage during flowering and boll setting stage of cotton in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022

作　　者：孙帅 王雪姣 李顺澳 王森 火勋国 郭燕云 雷斌[4] Sun Shuai;Wang Xuejiao;Li Shun’ao;Wang Sen;Huo Xunguo;Guo Yanyun;Lei Bin(Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi 830002,China;Wulanwusu Ecology and Agrometeorology Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Xinjiang Agrometeoro-logical Observatory/Information Centre of Xinjiang Xingnong Net,Urumqi 830002,China;Institute of Nuclear Technology and Biotechnology,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Crop Biotechnology,Urumqi 830091,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐830002 [2]乌兰乌苏生态与农业气象新疆野外科学观测研究站,新疆石河子832000 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区农业气象台/新疆兴农网信息中心,乌鲁木齐830002 [4]新疆农业科学院核技术生物技术研究所/新疆农作物生物科技重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830091

出　　处：《棉花学报》2024年第2期87-100,共14页Cotton Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42105172);2022年度新疆维吾尔自治区“天山英才”——“三农”骨干人才项目(2022SNGGNT067);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(2022D01A295)。

摘　　要：【目的】高温热害是新疆棉花花铃期最主要的气象灾害,严重制约着棉花的安全生产。明确该地区高温热害的演变特征,为科学制定防灾减灾措施提供参考依据。【方法】基于新疆植棉区55个国家基本气象站1961―2022年日最高气温资料以及24个棉花气象观测站1991―2022年棉花开花期、吐絮期观测资料,结合棉花花铃期高温热害监测指标,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验等分析方法,揭示新疆棉花花铃期不同等级高温热害的时间和空间变化规律。【结果】1961―2022年新疆植棉区花铃期日最高气温、极端高温(日最高气温≥38.0℃)和极端高温累计日数呈极显著上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.16℃·(10 a)^(-1)、0.07℃·(10 a)^(-1)和0.45 d·(10 a)^(-1)。新疆各植棉区棉花花铃期高温热害发生的频率和强度均呈增加趋势。1961―2022年东疆亚区96.0%以上的年份发生了不同等级的花铃期高温热害,南疆亚区花铃期轻度和中度热害发生频率分别为88.7%和51.6%,北疆亚区花铃期轻度热害发生频率为64.5%。【结论】新疆植棉区花铃期高温热害发生的频率和强度呈现出“东强西弱,南多北少”的区域性特征。新疆植棉区应注重耐高温棉花品种的选育与应用推广,合理调整棉花种植布局,加强气象灾害监测与预警工作,保障新疆棉花生产安全稳定发展。[Objective]Heat damage is the most important meteorological disaster during the flowering and boll setting stage of cotton,which severely limits the safe production of cotton in Xinjiang.The evolution characteristics of heat damage in this area are clarified,which provides a reference for the scientific formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation measures.[Methods]This research used the daily maximum air temperature of 55 national basic meteorological stations in Xinjiang cotton planting areas from 1961 to 2022,and the observation data during the flowering stage and boll opening stage of 24 cotton meteorological observation stations from 1991 to 2022.Combined with the monitoring indices of high temperature and heat damage during flowering and boll setting stage of cotton,this research revealed the temporal and spatial variation of high temperature and heat damage with different grades during cotton flowering and boll setting stage by climate tendency rate and Mann-Kendall mutation test.[Results]The results showed that the maximum air temperature,extreme high temperature(daily maximum temperature≥38.0℃)and cumulative days of the extreme high temperature during the flowering and boll setting stage of cotton in Xinjiang showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2022,with trend rates of 0.16℃·(10 a)^(-1),0.07℃·(10 a)^(-1)and 0.45 d·(10 a)^(-1),respectively.The frequency and intensity of high temperature and heat damage during the flowering and boll setting stage of cotton in Xinjiang have increased.From 1961 to 2022,the years of high temperature and heat damage during flowering and boll setting stage with different intensities in the cotton planting area of eastern Xinjiang subregion accounted for more than 96.0%,and the mild and moderate heat damage in the cotton planting area of southern Xinjiang subregion accounted for 88.7%and 51.6%,respectively.And the frequency of mild heat damage during the flowering and boll setting stage of cotton in the northern Xinjiang subregion was 64.5%.[Conclusion

关 键 词：棉花 花铃期 高温 热害 气候变化 新疆 

分 类 号：TD7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]