2023年寻甸烟区重大冰雹灾害潜势预报方法和作业指标研究  

HAIL DISASTER RESEARCH ON POTENTIAL PREDICTION METHODS AND OPERATION INDEXES IN XUNDIAN TOBACCO PLANTING AREA IN 2023

作　　者：耿琼 莫绍青 崔国生 GENG Qiong;MO Shaoqing;CUI Guosheng(Xundian Meteorological Bureau,Xundian 655200,Yunnan,China;Chenggong Meteorological Bureau,Kunming 650506,Yunnan China;Blue Sky Meteorological Information Company of Kunming,Kunming 650034,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]寻甸县气象局,云南寻甸655200 [2]昆明市呈贡区气象局,云南昆明650506 [3]昆明蓝天气象信息公司,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2024年第1期56-64,共9页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：中国气象局/农业农村部烤烟气象服务中心开放式研究基金项目(KYZX2023-06).

摘　　要：2023年8月10-11日寻甸县出现了罕见的冰雹、大风等强对流天气。利用探空资料和数值预报产品,从抬升条件、能量和水汽条件提炼出了寻甸烤烟种植区冰雹潜势预报方法,并分析了此次过程的多普勒雷达回波特征。结果表明:用昆明和威宁两站探空资料距离权重插值法获得的寻甸县上空探空资料,结合地面高空实况和数值预报产品提炼出的冰雹潜势预报方法,对8月10日和11日的冰雹天气有很好的指示意义,且在6-8月份的预报检验中TS评分分别为1.0、0.968和0.903;雷达回波特征分析表明降雹前回波发展时间长度、降雹时VIL、VIL跃增、云团的辐合强度等参数与降雹强度都有很好的正相关性,将▽H≥1 km(▽H=H_(45dBz)-H_(0))作为一般作业指标,▽H≥1 km保持2个体扫时间以上或▽H≥1.5 km作为紧急作业指标有很好的防雹效果。A rare severe convective weather process with the hailstone and gale occurred over Xundian from 10 to 11 August 2016.the hailstone potential prediction method was extracted from the lifting conditions,energy and water vapor conditions by using the sounding data and numerical prediction products and the Doppler radar echo characteristics of this process were analyzed.The results show that:The hailstone potential prediction method,which is derived from the distance weight interpolation method of sounding data from Kunming and Weining stations,combined with the ground aerial reality and numerical forecast products,has a good indication significance for the hailstone process on August 10 and 11,and the TS scores were 1.0,0.968 and 0.903 respectively in the forecast test from June to August.The characteristic analysis of radar echo shows that the development time of echo before hail fall,the VIL,the VIL jump during hail fall,the convergence intensity of cloud and other parameters have a positive correlation with hail fall intensity.Taking ▽H≥1 km(▽H=H_(45dBz)-H_(0))as the general operation index,▽H≥1km maintaining 2 sweep time or ▽H≥1.5 km as the emergency operation index has a good hail suppression effect.

关 键 词：寻甸县 烤烟种植区 防雹作业 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]