中国农村劳动力稳态流动对乡村老龄化的影响——基于2009—2021年千村调查数据的实证分析  

The Impact of Steady Flow of Rural Labor Force in China on Rural Aging:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 2009-2021 Thousand-village Survey

作　　者：康姣姣 吴方卫[1,2] Kang Jiaojiao;Wu Fangwei(College of Urban and Regional Sciences,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Research Institute for Urban and Rural Development,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学城市与区域科学学院,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学城乡发展研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2024年第2期78-92,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2022ZJB004);国家自然科学基金项目(72373089);国家社科基金重点项目(21AZD036)。

摘　　要：中国农村老龄化速度持续加快,农村仍然是积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的重点和难点。文章讨论了在农村劳动力流动趋于稳态背景下,乡村老龄化加剧的形势并未弱化,人口老龄化城乡倒置的现象也更为明显,并利用2009—2021年千村调查的9 429个村域数据进行实证检验。研究发现,造成这一现象的主要原因为:一是农村流动劳动力的性质发生了改变,流出的劳动力实质上是户籍在农村的城镇劳动者,是城镇的常住人口,这直接导致乡村老龄化加快;二是流出的农村劳动力适应了城镇的就业和生活状态,即使回流也大都不返乡,回流对乡村老龄化加速的缓解作用不大;三是中国农村聚族而居的现象正在减少,城镇定居已经成为流出劳动力的愿景和趋势,而城镇定居者大多以青壮年居多,老年人因为生活习惯和成本的考量更加倾向于留在乡村,这加快了乡村老龄化速度;四是农村劳动力流动对乡村老龄化的影响。文章认为,政府应警惕回流劳动力因为无法就业、乡村公共服务较弱等问题而反复流动,所以需要持续推动乡村振兴以及农村多层次养老体系建设。The aging rate in rural China continues to accelerate,and rural areas remain a key and difficult point in actively responding to the national strategy of aging population.This paper employs data from the Thousand-village Survey conducted by Shanghai University of Finance and Economics from 2009 to 2021 for empirical testing,indicating that the flow of rural labor force tends to be steady,the intensification of rural aging has not weakened,and the urban-rural inversion phenomenon of population aging is more obvious.The main reasons for this phenomenon are that:First,the nature of rural migrant labor force has changed.The outflow labor force is essentially urban workers with residence registration in rural areas,and it is the permanent population of cities and towns,which directly leads to the acceleration of rural aging.Second,the outflow labor force has adapted to the employment and living conditions in urban areas,and even if they return,most of them do not choose rural hometowns.The return has little effect on alleviating the accelerated aging of rural areas.Third,the traditional co-residence of ethnic groups is gradually being broken down,and settling in urban areas has become a vision and trend for the outflow labor force.Meanwhile,most of the people who settle in urban areas are young and middle-aged,and the elderly tend to stay in rural areas,which accelerates the pace of rural aging.Fourth,the impact of rural labor force flow on rural aging varies due to the differences in rural infrastructure,public services,social security,and employment opportunities,so it is necessary to continue to promote rural revitalization and the construction of a multi-level elderly care system in rural areas.The contributions of this paper are as follows:First,it provides supplements on the content and data of relevant research.Second,it provides a new perspective to elucidate the sustained acceleration of rural aging in China's rural areas.Third,considering non-economic factors such as local employment opportunities,infrastruc

关 键 词：乡村老龄化 回流 稳态流动 聚族而居 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济] F063.4