能源转型及“双碳”目标背景下全球炼油行业发展新态势与前景展望  

New development trend and prospect of global refining and chemical industry under energy transition and dual carbon goals

作　　者：徐海丰[1,2] XU Haifeng(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第4期29-35,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2023年,全球炼化项目建设稳步推进,炼油重心继续东移;全球新增炼油能力8617.5万吨/年,高于上年新增量,总炼油能力提升至51.8亿吨/年。全球原油加工量合计约8240万桶/日,恢复至疫情前水平,装置开工率持续回升,炼油毛利继续保持历史较高水平。炼油行业加快结构调整和转型升级,欧美炼油商加快投资生物燃料生产,中东非洲地区以新建项目推动炼油业转型升级。炼油技术在劣质重油加工、清洁燃料生产、炼油向化工转型等方面取得持续进展,原油直接制化学品技术成为重点方向。2024年全球有望新增炼油能力近1亿吨,全球炼化项目在2030年前仍将继续保持增长,增长中心集中在亚太和中东地区;2024年全球炼厂原油加工量同比增长约100万桶/日,增量主要来自中国、中东、非洲地区,世界炼油毛利有望维持较好水平;2030年前炼油结构调整和转型升级仍是炼油业发展的主基调,新兴经济体炼油行业将继续加快转型升级和绿色智能化发展进程。In 2023, the construction of global refining and chemical projects was steadily advanced, and the focus of refining continued to move eastward. The new refining capacity of 86.175 million tons/year in the world was higher than the new incremental amount of the previous year, and the total refining capacity increased to 5.18 billion tons/year. Total global crude oil processing capacity of approximately 82.4 million barrels per day in 2023 was restored to pre-pandemic levels, plant operating rates continued to rebound, and refining margins continued to maintain historically high levels. The refining industry accelerated structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, European and American refiners accelerated investment in biofuel production, and the Middle East and Africa promoted the transformation and upgrading of the refining industry with new projects. Refining technology has made continuous progress in the processing of low-quality heavy oil, clean fuel production,the transformation of refining into the chemical industry, and the technology of direct crude to chemicals has become a key direction. 2024 is expected to add nearly 100 million tons of new refining capacity globally, and the global refining and chemical projects will continue to grow until 2030, with the growth centers focusing on Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. The global crude processing capacity of the refineries will increase by about 1 million barrels per day, incremental mainly from China, the Middle East, Africa and the world refining gross profit is expected to maintain a better level. Refining restructuring and transformation & upgrading will be the main tone of the development of the refining industry before 2030 and the refining industry in emerging economies will continue to accelerate the process of transformation & upgrading as well as green and intelligent development.

关 键 词：全球炼化产业 炼油能力 原油加工量 绿色低碳转型 “双碳” 发展前景 

分 类 号：F416.72[经济管理—产业经济]