2023年中国炼油工业发展状况及展望  

Review and outlook of China's refining industry in 2023

作　　者：费华伟[1,3] 刘旭明 王婧 高振宇[1,3] FEI Huawei;LIU Xuming;WANG Jing;GAO Zhenyu(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Comprehensive Management Department;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]中国石油集团综合管理部 [3]中国石油集团油气市场模拟与价格预测重点实验室

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第4期43-48,103,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2023年,中国炼油能力增长继续放缓,新增炼油能力1200万吨/年,总能力升至9.36亿吨/年,装置结构优化调整持续推进。2023年我国成品油需求快速反弹、市场整顿持续推进等利好因素推动炼油行业生产明显好转,多项主要生产经营指标显著回升。国家政策为我国炼油行业高质量发展指明了路径,炼油企业持续推进绿色、低碳、数字化、智能化发展,并积极“走出去、引进来”,扩大合作。展望未来,2024年中国炼油能力将继续较快增长,但能力峰值基本显现,预计炼油能力峰值将在2027年左右出现;“十五五”期间,我国炼油能力过剩的压力有一定缓解,但不能掉以轻心,淘汰落后产能、调整产品结构、节能降碳等转型升级措施需长期推进。In 2023, the growth of China's refining capacity continued to slow down with a new refining capacity of 12 million tons/year, the total capacity rose to 936 million tons/year, and the optimization and adjustment of unit structure continued to facilitate. 2023 China's rapid rebound in demand for refined oil products, market consolidation and other favorable factors to promote the refining industry production improved significantly, and a number of major production and operation indicators rebounded significantly. Country's policies have paved the way for the high-quality development of the refining industry and refining enterprises have continued to promote green, low-carbon, digitalized, and intelligentized development, actively facilitated “bringing in” and “going global”, and expanded national and international cooperation. Looking ahead, China's refining capacity will continue to grow faster in 2024, but the peak capacity is basically visible, and peak refining capacity is expected to appear around 2027. During the 15~(th) Five-Year Plan period, China's excess refining capacity will be alleviated to a certain extent, but it should not be taken lightly. Such transformation and upgrading measures as phasing out outdated production capacity, adjusting production structure, as well as energy conservation and carbon reduction need continuously promoting.

关 键 词：中国炼油工业 装置结构优化调整 减油增化 绿色低碳 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济]