传染病扩散的对策及医疗资源配置问题研究——以新冠疫情为例  

The Study of Prevention Strategies and Healthcare Resource Allocation Problem in COVID-19 Spreading Scenarios

作　　者：李锋[1] 魏莹[2] LI Feng;WEI Ying(School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510640,China;Department of Business Administration,Jinan University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510640 [2]暨南大学企业管理系,广东广州510632

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2024年第2期114-129,共16页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72072073);广东省自然科学基金项目(2023A1515010630);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目一般项目(GD20CGL20)。

摘　　要：疫情防控下的医疗资源配置需要同时考虑资源的服务水平和利用率两大评价指标。首先,将人员流动因素等引入流行病扩散的易感-潜伏-传染-恢复模型中,构建更加符合流行病扩散的多智能体模型。通过仿真,不仅能够得到传染病感染的总人数,还能得到病患人数的实时变化情况。结合病患人数的动态变化,计算医疗资源的需求满足率和利用率指标。在此基础上,分析了包括佩戴口罩、隔离病患、接种疫苗、筛查核酸和“封城”等多种疫情防控措施的实施效果,以及这些防控措施对医疗资源的影响。最后,以病床为例进行了医疗资源配置问题分析。结果表明:及时启动防疫对策,能够大幅降低对医疗资源的数量需求;反之,防疫对策不能够减少对医疗资源的数量需求,仅能够降低病患总人数。The allocation of healthcare resources under epidemic prevention and control needs to consider both the service level and utilization rate of the resources.Population mobility and other factors were first introduced into the suspected-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR)model of epidemic spreading to build a cellular automata model that was more consistent with the actual epidemic transmission process.The total number of people infected with the epidemic and the real-time changes in the number of patients could be obtained through the simulation.Combined with the dynamic changes in the number of patients,the demand satisfaction rate and utilization rate indicators of healthcare resources were calculated.Following this process,the implementation effects of several popular epidemic prevention and control strategies including face mask-wearing,patient isolating,vaccinating,nucleic acid testing,and‘lock-down'were analyzed.Finally,taking hospital beds as an example,their impacts on the healthcare resource allocation problem were discussed.The results demonstrate that a quick response to epidemic spreading will significantly decrease the demand for medical resources.On the contrary,epidemic prevention strategies cannot reduce the demand for medical resources,but can only reduce the total number of patients.

关 键 词：传染病扩散 资源配置 对策研究 SEIR模型 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]