双维度视阈下家庭收入期望差距对消费的影响  

The Impact of Income Expectation Disparities on Consumption from a Dual-Dimensional Perspective

作　　者：甘晓丽[1] 靖薇 顾剑华[1] GAN Xiao-li;JING Wei;GU Jian-hua(Guilin University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004 China)

机构地区：[1]桂林电子科技大学,桂林541004

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2024年第3期22-34,共13页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72363007);广西壮族自治区自然科学基金(2024GXNSFAA010320);广西壮族自治区哲学社会科学规划研究课题(21FYJ032).

摘　　要：消费是保持经济持续稳定增长最主要的需求来源,深入挖掘消费潜能、充分发挥消费对经济增长的驱动作用对经济复苏和持续发展至关重要。文章基于前景理论,采用中国家庭金融调查数据,从历史和社会双维度视阈探讨了家庭收入期望差距对消费行为的影响及作用机理。家庭收入期望差距对消费有显著影响,但具有不对称性,总体而言,收入期望顺差对消费的影响落差较大。家庭收入社会期望顺差显著促进消费,落差显著抑制消费;家庭收入历史期望顺差和落差均显著促进消费。收入社会期望顺差比历史期望顺差对当期消费促进作用更强,长期则反之。分析表明,收入期望顺差通过提升家庭风险容忍度进而促进消费,而在收入社会期望处于落差状态下家庭风险容忍度不易改变。研究为解释家庭消费行为和制定刺激消费需求相关政策提供了新的观点和实证依据。Consumption is the primary source of demand for maintaining sustained and stable economic growth.Thoroughly tapping into consumption potential and fully leveraging the driving role of consumption in economic growth are crucial for economic recovery and sustained development.Based on prospect theory,this study utilizes data from the China Household Finance Survey to explore the impact and mechanisms of the household income expectation gap on consumption behavior from both historical and social perspectives.The household income expectation gap significantly influences consumption but exhibits asymmetry.Generally,the positive income expectation gap has a greater impact on consumption than the negative one.The positive income social expectation gap significantly promotes consumption,while the negative one significantly inhibits consumption.Both positive and negative income historical expectation gaps significantly promote consumption.The positive income social expectation gap’s effect on current consumption is greater than that of historical expectation gap,but the opposite is true in the long term.Mechanism analysis indicates that the positive income expectation gap promotes consumption by enhancing household risk tolerance,while household risk tolerance is less likely to change when the income social expectation gap is negative.This research provides new insights and empirical evidence for understanding household consumption behavior and formulating policies to stimulate consumption demand.

关 键 词：收入期望差距 消费 双维度视阈 前景理论 风险容忍度 

分 类 号：F126.2[经济管理—世界经济]