基于需求分析的MRI设备配置规划预测研究  

Research of MRI Equipment Configuration Planning Forecast Based on Demand Analysis

作　　者：李亚 张良 毛峰峰 LI Ya;ZHANG Liang;MAO Fengfeng(Shandong Provincial Center for Health Science&Technology and Talents Development,Jinan Shandong 250014,China;Medical Management Service Center of Shandong Health Commission,Jinan Shandong 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省卫生科技与人才发展中心,山东济南250014 [2]山东省卫生健康委医疗管理服务中心,山东济南250014

出　　处：《中国医疗设备》2024年第6期96-100,共5页China Medical Devices

基　　金：中国卫生经济学会重点立项研究课题(CHEA2223030103)。

摘　　要：目的探讨新的政策背景下,如何科学合理地进行磁共振成像(Magnetic Resonance Imaging,MRI)设备的配置。方法以山东省16个地市MRI设备的配置现状作为研究对象,对山东省各地市的医疗机构MRI设备的拥有量及其分布现状、经济性评价、有效性评价等角度展开回顾性研究分析,并基于大型医疗设备配置预测模型,对各地市的配置规划数量进行预测分析。结果各地市单台MRI设备年均利润率大多大于130%;单台MRI设备日均检查或治疗人数均值为30.30人,单台MRI设备检查阳性率均值为83.08%,患者平均等待时间均值为0.86 d。山东省各地市均具有比较大的对MRI设备的需求,预测配置数量排名前3的城市为济南市、临沂市和青岛市。结论本研究结果将为山东省各地市合理有效地进行配置规划提供参考意见,同时也将为其他研究学者对如何进行MRI设备的配置预测规划提供方法学参考依据。Objective To discuss how to scientifically and rationally allocate magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)equipment under the new policy background.Methods Taking the current situation of MRI configuration in 16 cities in Shandong Province as the research object,a retrospective study was carried out on the MRI ownership and distribution status,economic evaluation and effectiveness evaluation of medical institutions in Shandong Province,and the number of configuration planning was predicted and analyzed based on the prediction model of large-scale medical equipment configuration.Results The average annual profit rate of each MRI unit was generally greater than 130%.The average daily number of patients examined or treated by single MRI was 30.30 cases.The average positive rate of single MRI was 83.08%,and the average waiting time of patients was 0.86 d.All cities in Shandong Province had relatively large demand for MRI,and the top three cities in the predicted number of configurations were Jinan,Linyi and Qingdao.Conclusion The results of this study will provide reference for the rational and effective allocation planning of cities in Shandong Province.At the same time,this study will also provide methodological reference for other researchers on how to carry out the configuration prediction planning of MRI equipment.

关 键 词：磁共振成像 大型医疗设备配置 卫生技术评估 需求法预测模型 面向截面数据需求供给预测模型 

分 类 号：R197.39[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]