获益范围、外部选择与东盟政治安全合作成效差异的制度逻辑  

Scope of Benefits,Outside Options and the Effectiveness of ASEAN Political-Security Cooperation:An Institutional Logic

作　　者：孙志强 Sun Zhiqiang(the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2024年第2期31-56,157,158,共28页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“百年未有之大变局下中国特色国别和区域研究的理论与实践探索”(项目批准号:21JZD064)的支持。

摘　　要：冷战结束后,随着东盟的发展和以其为中心的安全合作架构在地区层面持续扩展,学界围绕东盟架构政治安全合作有效性的争论快速升温。文章认为,东盟政治安全合作的成效差异有着植根于东盟制度特性的内在逻辑。基于其组织结构松散、成员国具备较强能动性的制度禀赋,东盟政治安全合作的结果受到特定合作倡议的获益范围和外部选择两个关键变量的影响。获益范围从利益牵引角度决定了东盟成员国对某一合作倡议的支持程度,外部选择则从成本规避角度决定了东盟成员国付出必要成本推动制度性合作的意愿大小,二者交织互动催生出“合作达成”“合作否决”“合作悬置”以及“合作降级”四种差异化的结果。在理论建构基础上,文章有针对性地开展了四组基于受控比较的案例研究:中美战略竞争背景下印尼推动《东盟印太展望》出台、中菲南海岛礁争端背景下菲律宾推动东盟积极介入南海问题、柬埔寨冲突背景下马来西亚协调东盟的危机应对策略,以及冷战结束后泰国倡导变革“东盟方式”不干涉原则的“灵活接触”倡议。案例研究初步验明了理论框架的解释力。This article argues that differences in the effectiveness of ASEAN's political-security cooperation are rooted in the inherent institutional characteristics of ASEAN.Based on its loose organizational structure and the relatively strong agency of its member states,the outcomes of ASEAN's political-security cooperation are influenced by two key variables:the scope of benefits of and the outside options associated with specific cooperative initiatives.The extent to which the scope of benefits stemming from a particular cooperative initiative align with state interests determines the level of support from ASEAN member states for that initiative.Outside options,from the perspective of cost avoidance,determine the willingness of ASEAN member states to incur the costs necessary to promote institutional cooperation.The interaction between these two variables gives rise to four differentiated outcomes:"cooperation achieved,""cooperation rejected,""cooperation suspended,"and"cooperation downgraded."On the basis of this theoretical foundation,the article explores four sets of case studies which are selected to offer a controlled comparison of the various outcomes.

关 键 词：东盟 “清谈馆” 获益范围 外部选择 国际制度合作 

分 类 号：D733[政治法律—政治学] D814.1[政治法律—中外政治制度]