公众对中美关系的知觉与知觉偏差——基于五国网民调查的分析  

Public Perceptions,Meta-perception,Misperception,and Perception Gap of Sino-U.S.Relations:A Online Survey of Five Countries

作　　者：马得勇 Ma Deyong(School of Government of Shenzhen University)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学政府管理学院

出　　处：《当代亚太》2024年第2期131-156,160,共27页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国国家形象国际传播的受众心理机制比较研究”(项目批准号:22AZZ003)的阶段性研究成果之一。

摘　　要：从政治心理学视角来分析两国关系对理解外交政策和国际政治的本质不可或缺。文章尝试运用心理学的元知觉、知觉错误和知觉偏差三个概念对公众的外交政策认知进行分析。文章以中、美、德、日、韩五国的公众为调查对象,通过线上调查收集样本,从公众对中美国家实力、意图、国家形象、国家威胁感、外交政策合理性等方面的知觉、元知觉和知觉偏差进行测量和统计分析发现,中国公众对中国取代美国的实力和意图存在过高的估计,明显高于美国等其他国家的公众估计;中美两国公众均对对方怀有较大的威胁感,但中国公众比美国公众的威胁感更高;中国公众对国家形象、外交政策合理性的自我评估过高。分析结果表明,无论与外国公众的知觉还是与国内官方立场相比,中国公众对国家实力、意图以及中美关系的知觉均存在较大的偏差。文章最后讨论了这些知觉偏差可能对中国外交政策产生的影响并认为,民间对外交问题的准确知觉对改善中国国家形象和国际环境具有正面的促进作用。This article attempts to analyze public perceptions of foreign policy using three concepts borrow from psychology:meta-perceptions,misperceptions,and perception gap.The article is based on a survey of the publics of five countries:China,the United States,Germany,Japan,and South Korea.Samples were collected through online surveys,and perceptions,meta-perceptions,and perception gap regarding national strength,state intentions,national image,threat perception,and rationality of foreign policies of China and the United States were measured and analyzed using quantitative methods.The results revealed that the Chinese public lends to overestimate China's strength and intentions to replace the United States,significantly more so than the publics of other countries,including the United States.Both Chinese and American publics perceive each other as significant threats,but public perceptions in China of threats from the United States are higher than American perceptions of threats from China.Additionally,the Chinese public tends to have an overly positive selfassessment of the national image and the rationality of China's foreign policies.The analysis indicates there exists huge perception gap or misperception among the Chinese public regarding national strength,state intentions,and Sino-American relations when compared with the perception of foreign publics and or when compared with perception associated with official positions.

关 键 词：外交政策 元知觉 错误知觉 知觉偏差 国家形象 国家实力 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学]