粮食安全与农民收入的耦合协调评价及动态分析  

Evaluation and Dynamic Analysis of the Coupling Coordination between Food Security and Farmers’Income

作　　者：马晓河[1] 周婉冰 MA Xiaohe;ZHOU Wanbing(Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Beijing 100038;School of Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488)

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院,北京100038 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《经济纵横》2024年第4期85-98,F0002,共15页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：清华大学中国农村研究院研究课题“新时期粮食安全与农民收入问题研究”(编号:CIRS2023-1)的成果。

摘　　要：新时期粮食安全与农民收入协调发展是中国式现代化推进过程中农业强国建设的重点任务。本文基于2002—2021年全国31个省份面板数据,对粮食安全与农民收入耦合协调度实际水平、空间格局及分布动态进行分析。研究发现:在观测期内粮食安全与农民收入的耦合协调关系呈稳定上升趋势,至2021年已达到优质协调状态;耦合协调度的区域差异性特征明显,呈现主产区—主销区—产销平衡区的阶梯形态;耦合协调度在区域内部有明显差异,我国粮食安全与农民收入的耦合协调在观测期内存在空间集聚现象。在新时期,提高粮食安全与农民收入耦合协调度,推动粮食安全与农民收入协调发展,应以保障国家粮食安全为底线兼顾农民增收,以提高种粮农民收入为重点导向,全面激活农民种粮积极性,立足当前粮食安全与农民收入耦合协调发展的不平衡特征,将既能增产又能增收的农业政策措施作为落脚点,同时注重缩小、弥合区域间差距。The coordinated development between food security and farmers’income in the new era is the key task of China to build up the strength in agriculture and progress in the Chinese path to modernization.With the panel data from 31 provinces in China during 2002–2021,this study analyzed the level,spatial pat⁃tern,and distribution dynamics of the coupling coordination degree between food security and farmers’in⁃come.The results showed that during the observation period,the coupling coordination between food security and farmers’income presented an improving trend and reached a high-quality coordination level in 2021.The coupling coordination degree showcased obvious regional differences,presenting a stepped pattern of main pro⁃duction area,main sales area,and production-sales balanced area.Moreover,the coupling coordination de⁃gree varied significantly within regions,with a spatial agglomeration phenomenon during the observation pe⁃riod.In the new era,to improve the coordinated development of food security and farmers’income,we should take national food security as the bottom line and take the increase in farmers’income into account,with focus on improving the income of grain farmers.Considering the unbalanced coordinated development of food secu⁃rity and farmers’income,we should fully activate the enthusiasm of farmers for grain production and formu⁃late agricultural policies that can both increase production and income,while paying attention to narrowing re⁃gional gaps.

关 键 词：粮食安全 农民收入 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]