低碳驱动下考虑废钢质量的钢铁制造供应链稳定性分析  

Stability analysis of steel manufacturing supply chain considering scrap quality under carbon emission reduction

作　　者：袁静 朱建军[1] YUAN Jing;ZHU Jian-jun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;College of Management Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Maanshan 243032,China;Key Laboratory of Multidisciplinary Management and Control of Complex Systems of Anhui Higher Education Institute,Maanshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106 [2]安徽工业大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽马鞍山243032 [3]复杂系统多学科管理与控制安徽省教育厅重点实验室,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《控制与决策》2024年第5期1736-1744,共9页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72071106,72074001);复杂系统多学科管理与控制安徽省教育厅重点实验室开放课题(RZ2200000691)。

摘　　要：钢铁行业作为最大的碳排放主体,面对日益增大的环保压力,亟待改进工艺流程,提升以废钢为原材料的绿色清洁生产比例.对此,运用博弈论和混沌理论研究环保压力和废钢质量水平对供应链各博弈主体的影响.研究结果表明,外部环保压力的增大会促使钢铁企业逐步向以废钢为主要原料的清洁炼钢模式过渡,逐步提高废钢原料的质量才能使得废钢供应商和钢铁企业达到最优利润.然而,提高废钢原料的质量水平并不利于增强系统的稳定性.当前以铁矿石为主要原材料的钢铁冶炼模式应平稳渐进地向以废钢为原料的清洁生产模式过渡,并通过大数据等信息化技术加强钢铁市场的价格监管,引导企业自律,遵守市场规律调节原材料的价格;否则,价格调整参数超出阈值会导致整个钢铁市场动荡,甚至可能出现经济混沌以及钢铁企业破产.Under the background of carbon neutrality,the steel industry,as the largest carbon emission body,faces the increasing pressure of carbon emission limitation.It is urgent to improve the production process and improve the proportion of clean production taking scrap steel as raw material.In this study,game theory and chaos theory are used to analyze the influence of carbon emission limiting pressure and scrap quality improvement on each game player in supply chain.The results show that carbon emission reduction encourages steel enterprises to develop scrap steelmaking.At the same time,the quality of scrap materials needs to be improved to meet the requirements of scrap suppliers and steel enterprises to achieve optimal profits.However,the improvement in the quality of scrap materials is not conducive to system stability.At present,iron ore is still the main raw material in the steel industry,and the transition to scrap steel should be gradual and smooth.Government department uses big data and other information technologies to strengthen the price supervision of the steel market,and guide firms to consciously comply with the market rules to adjust the price of raw materials,otherwise it may lead to the turmoil of the entire steel market,and even the trend of economic chaos to bankruptcy.

关 键 词：低碳 废钢质量 稳定性 复杂性 博弈论 混沌理论 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F274