基于过滤性传递概率的SFN最终事件发生概率计算方法研究  

Research on Calculating Method of Target Event Occurrence Probability of SFN Based on Filterability Transfer Probability

作　　者：李莎莎 崔铁军 Li Sha-sha;CUI Tie-jue(School of tnvironrnental and Chemical Engineering,Shenyang Ligong Univorsity,Shenyong,Liaobing 110159,Ching)

机构地区：[1]沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院,辽宁沈阳110159

出　　处：《模糊系统与数学》2024年第1期88-97,共10页Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52004120)。

摘　　要：为研究系统故障演化过程(systemfaultevolutionprocess,SFEP)中事件之间的相互联系,确定最终事件的可能性,提出考虑过滤性传递概率的最终事件发生概率分布计算方法.过滤性传递概率认为只有当原因事件发生概率大于传递概率时才能导致结果事件发生.给出三种数据形式,并针对这三种情况提出三种最终事件故障概率分布计算方法.同时,在空间故障网络(spacefaultnetwork,SFN)给出关系组的概念,用以描述原因事件-连接-结果事件的关系模式,将SFN中所有关系组成关系组,再通过演化顺序将关系组中关系叠加,计算最终事件故障概率分布.研究表明过滤性传递概率只有在一定范围内,SFN的最终事件概率分布才发生变化。同时,对比分析了延续性传递概率与过滤性传递概率的不同.To study the relationships between events in the System Fault Evolution Process(SFEP),determine the possibility of the target event,and propose a calculation method of the probability distribution of the target event taking into account the filterability transfer probability.The filterability transfer probability considers that only when the occurrence probability of the cause event is greater than the transfer probability can the result event occur.Three data forms are given,and three methods of calculating the probability distribution of the target event fault are proposed for these three cases.At the same time,the concept of relationship set is given in Space Fault Network(SFN),which is used to describe the relationship model of cause event-connection-result event and put all relationships of SFN in relationship set.Then,the relationships in the relationship set are superimposed by evolution order to calculate the probability distribution of the target event fault.The results show that the target event probability distribution of SFN changes only within a certain range of filterability transfer probability.At the same time,the difference between continuity transfer probability and filterability transfer probability is compared and analyzed.

关 键 词：安全系统工程 空间故障网络 系统故障演化过程 传递概率 最终事件发生概率 

分 类 号：O159[理学—数学]