高阶依赖、社会性权力与美国及其盟国政策的一致性  

Higher-Order Dependence,Social Power,and Policy Consistency Between the United States and Its Allies

作　　者：曹玮[1] Cao Wei(the Department of International Politics,the University of International Relations)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国际政治系,北京100091

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第4期29-65,157,158,共39页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：2021年度国家社会科学基金一般项目“中美竞合战略第三方因素的影响机制、未来趋势及对策研究”(项目批准号:21BGJ007)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：作者借助社会网络分析方法研究哪些因素会影响美国盟国与美国政策的一致性。与所有国家一样,美国盟国处在由国家和其他国际行为体所组成的社会网络中。作为社会网络中的节点,它们既对其他节点存在依赖,也被其他节点所依赖。依赖会导致从属和被支配,被依赖则会产生权力,两者都会影响它们与美国政策的一致性。研究显示,美国盟国对美国的一阶依赖、对更多社会网络节点的高阶依赖以及其他社会网络节点对美国盟国的依赖都会不同程度地对美国盟国与美国政策的一致性产生影响。其中,美国盟国对美国的军事依赖程度、与美国的共同盟国数量、与美国的混合第三方数量以及与美国共同参与的政府间国际组织数量会正向影响双方的政策一致性,美国盟国在贸易、军事和政府间国际组织等领域的多边社会网络中因位置优势而获得的社会性权力会负向影响双方的政策一致性。这意味着中国要想缓解美国联合盟国所带来的战略压力、更有效地发展与美国盟国的合作关系,可优先从那些社会网络位置重要,对美国军事依赖程度较低,与美国的共同盟国、混合第三方以及与美国共同参与的政府间国际组织数量较少的美国盟国入手。This article uses social network analysis methods to study which factors will affect the policy consistency of the United States and its allies.Like all countries,the US allies are in a social network composed of countries and other international behavior.As nodes in the social network,they depend on other nodes on the one hand,and on the other hand,they are also relied upon by other nodes.Dependence on others leads to subordination and being dominated,and being depended on creates power,both of which affect their consistency of policy with the United States.The study shows that the first-order dependence of US allies on the United States,the higher-order dependence of US allies on more social network nodes,and the dependence of other social network nodes on US allies have varying degrees of influence on the policy consistency of US allies and the United States.Among them,the degree of military dependence on the United States,the number of co-allies with the United States,the number of mixed third parties with the United States,and the number of intergovernmental international organizations in which the United States participates positively affect the policy consistency of both parties;the social power that the US allies gain from their position in multilateral social networks in the fields of trade,military affairs and intergovernmental international organizations negatively affects the policy consistency of both parties.This reminds us that if China wants to alleviate the strategic pressure brought by the United States alliance,and develop a cooperative relationship with the US allies more effectively,it can give priority to those US allies with important social networks,less military dependence on the United States,and fewer common allies,mixed third parties,and intergovernmental international organizations that the United States participates in.

关 键 词：同盟管理 联盟政治 美国同盟战略 美国同盟体系 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]