基于ARIMAX 模型的中国税收收入预测与分析  

Prediction and analysis of tax revenue based on ARIMAX Model

作　　者：赵盼盼 张迷 焦力宾 ZHAO Panpan;ZHANG Mi;JIAO Libin(Department of Basic Courses Teaching and Research,Yingkou Institute of Technology,Yingkou 115014,China;Lankao County Statistics Bureau,Lankao 475399,China;Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]营口理工学院基础教研部,辽宁营口115014 [2]兰考县统计局,河南兰考475399 [3]大连理工大学电子信息与电气工程学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2024年第5期22-27,共6页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：营口理工学院校级科研项目(QNL202025)。

摘　　要：根据我国1978—2019年间的税收收入、国内生产总值和财政支出数据,利用R软件,对税收收入建立ARIMA模型,又以国内生产总值和财政支出为协变量,对税收收入建立ARIMAX模型.根据两个模型分别预测2020—2022年税收收入,将预测值与真实值对比,计算得到相对误差和平均绝对百分比误差,发现与ARIMA模型相比,ARIMAX模型误差更小,精度更高,预测更准确.因此,利用ARIMAX模型得到2023—2025年税收收入的预测值.Based on the tax revenue,gross domestic product,and fiscal expenditure data of China from 1978 to 2019,an ARIMA model was established for tax revenue using R software.The ARIMAX model was also established for tax revenue with gross domestic product and fiscal expenditure as covariates.The two models were used to predict tax revenue from 2020 to 2022,and the predicted values were compared with the true values to calculate the relative error and average absolute percentage error.It was found that compared with the ARIMA model,the ARIMAX model has smaller errors,higher accuracy,and more accurate predictions.Therefore,the ARIMAX model is used to obtain the predicted values of tax revenue from 2023 to 2025.

关 键 词：ARIMAX模型 税收收入 国内生产总值 财政支出 预测 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] F810.4[理学—数学]