CPT在实现我国控烟目标中的应用探索  

Application of the cigarette purchase tasks in achieving China’s tobacco control goals

作　　者：杨晓尘 曹望楠[1] 林昊翔 张蓝超 林雨欣 陈子砚 常春[1] YANG Xiaochen;CAO Wangnan;LIN Haoxiang;ZHANG Lanchao;LIN Yuxin;CHEN Ziyan;CHANG Chun(Department of Social Medicine and Health Education,Peking University School of Public Health,Beijing 100191,China;Institute for Global Health and Development,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学公共卫生学院社会医学与健康教育系,北京100191 [2]北京大学全球健康发展研究院,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（医学版）》2024年第3期479-486,共8页Journal of Peking University:Health Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(82173637)。

摘　　要：目的:采用卷烟购买任务(cigarette purchase task,CPT)对我国吸烟者的卷烟需求进行评价,并评估不同假设情境下的卷烟价格,以实现“健康中国2030”行动中降低吸烟率的目标。方法:共计447名受试者通过问卷调查完成CPT,根据价格框架和对应的卷烟消费量拟合卷烟需求曲线,并得到5个相关指标,分别为强度(免费时的卷烟消费量)、断点(消费量降为0的价格)、最高消费额(maximum output,Omax)、最高价格(maximum price,Pmax,最高消费额对应的卷烟价格)和弹性(消费量变化与价格变化的比率)。采用单因素分析探索CPT指标和社会人口学特征、吸烟特征的相关性。采用单相衰减模型拟合戒烟率-卷烟价格曲线,并确定一系列情境下能使吸烟率降到20%的最佳卷烟价格。结果:从卷烟需求曲线得到吸烟者弹性为0.54,表明价格上涨10%可使吸烟率降低5.4%。收入越高的吸烟者对卷烟价格敏感性越低(弹性=-2.31,P=0.028)。CPT指标在常用卷烟价格、吸烟量和烟草依赖程度不同的吸烟者中差异有统计学意义,常用卷烟价格越高的吸烟者断点、最高消费额和最高价格均越高,弹性越低(P=0.001),烟草依赖程度越高的吸烟者强度、断点、最高消费额和最高价格均越高,而弹性越低(P=0.001),吸烟量更大的吸烟者强度、最高消费额更高,弹性更低(P<0.001)。要实现将吸烟率降至20%的目标,卷烟的价格至少为37.36元/包,调整受教育水平和收入水平后,卷烟价格分别至少为37.37元/包和37.84元/包。结论:CPT指标与收入水平和常用卷烟价格、吸烟量和烟草依赖程度显著相关,在研究影响吸烟行为的价格因素方面有应用空间;本研究模型拟合卷烟价格远超当前实际市场水平,应采取更有力的政策措施提高烟草税和卷烟零售价,以实现将吸烟率降低到20%的“健康中国2030”目标。Objective:To assess cigarette demand among Chinese smokers through a cigarette purchase task(CPT)and to evaluate cigarette prices under different hypothetical scenarios in order to meet the goals of smoking prevalence reduction in China.Methods:In the study,447 participants completed a hypothetical CPT at baseline assessments of a trial,thus,cigarette demand curves were individually fitted for each participant using an exponentiated version of the exponential demand model.Typically,five demand indices were derived,intensity(consumption when free),breakpoint(first price at which consumption is suppressed to 0),maximum output(Omax),maximum price(Pmax,price at which Omax occurred),and elasticity(the ratio of the change in quantity demanded to the change in price).A one-way analysis of variance was used to explore the correlations between the cigarette purchase task indices and socio-demographic and smoking characteristics.The one-way decay model was employed to simulate the smoking cessation rates and determine optimal cigarette prices in a series of scenarios for achieving 20%smoking prevalence.Results:The price elasticity drawn from CPT was 0.54,indicating that a 10%price increase could reduce smoking by 5.4%in the participated smokers.Smokers with higher income were less sensitive to cigarette prices(elasticity=-2.31,P=0.028).Cigarette purchase task indices varied significantly among the smokers with different prices of commonly used cigarettes,tobacco dependence,and smoking volume.The smokers who consumed cigarettes of higher prices reported higher breakpoint,Omax and Pmax,but lower intensity(P=0.001).The smokers who were moderately or highly nicotine dependent reported higher intensity,breakpoint,Omax and Pmax,and they had lower intensity(P=0.001).The smokers who had a higher volume of cigarettes reported higher intensity and Omax,and lower intensity(P<0.001).To achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%in China's Mainland,we estimated the desired increase on smoking cessation rate and prices accord

关 键 词：卷烟需求 卷烟购买任务 烟草控制 烟草税 

分 类 号：R193.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]