基于灰色模型的鲁西北平原水资源供需平衡分析  

Analysis of water resource supply and demand balance in the northwest Shandong plain based on grey model

作　　者：王倩 李高超 李翔宇 郑晓敏 徐晶 徐征和 WANG Qian;LI Gaochao;LI Xiangyu;ZHENG Xiaomin;XU Jing;XU Zhenghe(Water Conservancy Bureau of Lingcheng Distriet,Dezhou City,Dezhou 253500,China;Yuji Township Government of Lingcheng District,Dezhou City,Dezhou 253500,China;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Environmental Impact and Structural Safety in Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,China)

机构地区：[1]德州市陵城区水利局,德州253500 [2]德州市陵城区于集乡政府,德州253500 [3]中国矿业大学江苏省土木工程环境灾变与结构可靠性重点实验室,徐州221116 [4]济南大学水利与环境学院,济南250022

出　　处：《黑龙江大学自然科学学报》2024年第2期191-199,共9页Journal of Natural Science of Heilongjiang University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42007153);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2022QE285)。

摘　　要：水资源是影响鲁西北平原经济发展的重要因素,分析水资源供需平衡状况,预测未来需水量,对促进水资源的合理开发利用及人与自然和谐发展具有重要意义。基于陵城区近12年的用水量数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测方法,从2022年水资源可支撑的经济规模和人口数量的宏观指标角度描述需水量,对模型结果进行检验,并对2023~2030年供需水状态进行预测分析,并对模型结果进行了检验。结果表明,2022现状年的宏观需水量计算结果与模型相对误差δ=0.008,灰度模型预测结果准确。供水保证率为50%时,2022现状年缺水量为4090万m^(3),占总水量的16.74%;2030规划年缺水量为1811万m^(3),占总水量的6.28%。2030年水资源供需仍未达到平衡状态,但水资源平衡指数I_D逐年上升,水资源短缺状态逐步缓解。在现有经济与技术条件下,2030规划年水资源负载指数为Ⅲ级,水资源承载潜力不足,水资源开发利用方式单一,仍是社会经济发展的瓶颈。本研究为鲁西北平原水资源合理规划与开发利用提供参考。Water resources are an important factor affecting the economic development of the northwest Shandong plain.Analyzing the supply-demand balance of water resources and predicting future water demand are of great significance in promoting the rational development and utilization of water resources and the harmonious development of humans and nature.Based on the water consumption data of Lingcheng district in the past 12 years,the gray GM(1,1)model prediction method was used to describe the water demand from the perspective of macro indicators of the economic scale and population size that can be supported by the water resources in 2022,and to predict the state of supply and demand of water from 2023 to 2030.The results show that the macro water demand calculations for the current year of 2022 have a relative errorδ=0.008 to the model,and the grayscale model predictions are accurate.For the water supply guarantee rate of 50%,the water shortage in the current year of 2022 is 40.9 million m^(3),accounting for 16.74%of the total water quantity,and the water shortage in the planning year of 2030 is 18.11 million m^(3),accounting for 6.28%of the total.By 2030,the supply and demand of water resources will not reach a balanced state yet,but the water balance index ID is increasing year by year,and the water shortage state is gradually easing.Under the existing economic and technological conditions,the water resources loading index in the planning year of 2030 will be Class Ⅲ,with insufficient water resources carrying potential and a single mode of water resources utilization,which is still a bottleneck for socio-economic development.A reference for the rational planning and utilization of water resources in the northwest Shandong plain is provided.

关 键 词：灰色理论 供需预测 水资源承载力 鲁西北平原 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]