美国预见性情报工作的组织管理及启示研究  

Research on the Organization and Management of Anticipatory Intelligence Work

作　　者：李国俊 王延飞[2] 徐扬[2] Li Guojun;Wang Yanfei;Xu Yang(Peking University Library,Beijing,100871;Department of Information Management,Peking University,Beijing,100871)

机构地区：[1]北京大学图书馆,北京100871 [2]北京大学信息管理系,北京100871

出　　处：《信息资源管理学报》2024年第3期80-89,共10页Journal of Information Resources Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“情报刻画的理论与实践研究”(21BTQ009)的研究成果之一。

摘　　要：本文旨在探索美国情报机构开展预见性情报工作的实践经验,为我国情报机构提供借鉴和启示。以美国情报高级研究计划局(IARPA)发起的四个预见性情报项目为案例,分析了它们的任务场景、有组织科研模式、实施过程和影响力;从任务场景的内涵、线索的来源、评判的指标、团队的建设等四个方面,梳理了预见性情报工作的实践流程;从跨领域的协同、量化的评估、科商的双赢、多元的团队、影响的评估等五个方面,总结了预见性情报工作的特点和启示,并提出了我国情报机构开展预见性情报工作的若干建议。The purpose of this paper is to explore the practical experience of U.S.intelligence agencies in carrying out anticipatory intelligence work,and to provide reference and inspiration for China's intelligence agencies.Taking the four anticipatory intelligence projects initiated by the U.S.Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency(IARPA)as cases,it analyzes their mission scenarios,organized scientific research mode,implementation process and influence.This paper organizes the practical process of anticipatory intelligence work from four aspects,including the connotation of mission scenarios,the sources of clues,the indicators for judging,and the construction of teams.This paper summarizes the characteristics and revelations of anticipatory intelligence work from five aspects,including cross-domain synergy,quantitative assessment,win-win situation of science and commerce,diversified team,and impact assessment.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions for China's intelligence agencies to carry out anticipatory intelligence work.

关 键 词：预见性情报 组织管理研究 美国情报高级研究计划局 情报机构 预见性情报教育 

分 类 号：G351.1[文化科学—情报学]