基于P-E-R和成本收益模型的青岛市适度人口规模研究  

Study on optimum population of Qingdao City based on P-E-R model and cost-benefit model

作　　者：王彦颖 王旗 WANG Yan-ying;WANG Qi(College of Geography and Tourism,Qilu Normal University,Jinan 250200,China;School of Geographic Sciences,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,China)

机构地区：[1]齐鲁师范学院地理与旅游学院,山东济南250200 [2]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2024年第2期150-160,共11页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目(20CRK03);山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2023QD178).

摘　　要：基于P-E-R模型,选取反映经济发展和资源利用水平的各项指标,通过加权分析建立回归模型,对青岛市适度人口规模进行了研究,同时从成本收益角度分析构建了适度人口测度模型考察了青岛市的城镇化质量,以新型城镇化发展为焦点,为应对未来人口增长提供了资源配置方案及建议.结果表明:青岛市经济人口承载力优势显著,明显高于资源人口承载力;现阶段青岛市人口发展符合适度人口规模,人口增长存在一定空间,但人口增长速度低于全国水平;预计到2035年,青岛市人口约为1200万人.Based on the P-E-R model,various indicators reflecting the level of economic development and resource utilization are selected.By using weighted analysis to establish a regression model,an investigation is carried out on the appropriate population size of Qingdao.At the same time,from the perspective of cost-benefit analysis,a model for measuring the appropriate population size is constructed to examine the quality of urbanization in Qingdao.This focuses on the development of new urbanization to provide resource allocation schemes and related suggestions for future population growth.The study found that Qingdao s economic population carrying capacity has a significant advantage and is much higher than the resource population carrying capacity.At this stage,Qingdao s population development conforms to the appropriate population size.There is some room for population growth,but the speed of population growth is lower than the national level.It is estimated that by 2035,the population of Qingdao will be about 12 million.

关 键 词：适度人口 P-E-R模型 成本收益模型 人口承载力 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]