从特殊伙伴到有限疏离:印俄战略关系演变的动因与前景  

From Special Partner to Limited Alienation:The Motivation and Prospect of the Evolution of India-Russia Strategic Relations

作　　者：李清扬 汪伟民[2] Li Qingyang;Wang Weiming

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学国际关系与公共事务学院、中东研究所 [2]上海政法学院政府管理学院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2024年第3期87-105,154,155,共21页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

摘　　要：近年来,由于“印太战略”的出台以及印度与西方国家不断接近,构成传统意义上的印俄特殊伙伴关系的议题性因素出现了缺失。同时,结构性因素驱动印俄战略关系转向有限疏离:从体系层面来看,印度在印俄依赖关系中占据优势地位以及国际权力结构的变动使两国难以维系特殊伙伴关系;从单元层面来看,印度政治生态转向极端和激进使两国关系走向疏离,同时印度的战略诉求为印俄疏离关系设定限度。只有当俄罗斯对印度依然有重要的战略价值,并且契合印度的战略诉求时,印度才能放弃对俄疏离并参与俄罗斯构想的多边合作模式,否则印度将会倒向西方并与俄罗斯彻底疏离。In recent years,due to the introduction of the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”and the continuous proximity between India and Western countries,there has been a lack of problem-oriented factors that traditionally constitute the special partnership between India and Russia.At the same time,structural factors drive the strategic relationship between India and Russia to shift towards limited alienation:from a systemic perspective,India holds a dominant position in the India-Russia dependency relationship,and changes in the international power structure,making it difficult for the two coun-tries to maintain a special partnership.From unit perspective,India’s political ecology has shifted towards extremism and radicalism,and at the same time,India’s strategic demands have set limits for the alienation between India and Russia.Only when Russia still has important strategic value for India and fits India’s strategic aspirations can India abandon its alienation from Russia and participate in the multilateral cooperation model envisioned by Russia.Otherwise,India will move toward the West and completely dis-tance itself from Russia.

关 键 词：印俄关系 有限疏离 结构性动因 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学] D851.2[政治法律—外交学]