东盟国家对AUKUS的差异化反应——基于本体安全困境的解释与推演  

Differential Reactions of ASEAN Countries To AUKUS——Interpretation and Extrapolation Based on the Ontological Security Dilemma

作　　者：冯钧泽 Feng Junze

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2024年第3期106-131,155,156,共28页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：2023年度国家社科基金青年项目“‘印太经济框架’下东南亚国家的战略选择及中国应对研究”(项目编号:23CGJ040);2022年度国家社会科学基金重点项目“东南亚次区域合作与区域格局演变研究(1951-2021)”(项目编号:22ASS004)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：AUKUS宣布建立之后,东盟国家对此做出了差异化反应。本文在对本体安全困境理论进行梳理的基础上,选取了“威胁认知”和“身份叙事”两个内生性主要变量,依据这两个变量分析东盟国家对AUKUS的差异化反应。本文基于针对外部层面的“威胁认知”和针对内部层面的“身份叙事”对四种反应分型的结构分析,认为东盟国家对AUKUS的差异化反应与东盟组织整体反应的冲突并不会导致东盟陷入本体安全困境,因为这种差异目前仍在可控范围之内,东盟国家仍然认同东盟共同体这一区域身份。因此,东盟的本体安全困境不在区域层次,而在于作为外部威胁的AUKUS与东盟共同体针对“东盟中心地位”这一全球身份的竞争。目前东盟本体安全困境的实质便是这一身份竞争的“战略相持”。东盟本体安全困境的演进表现为AUKUS与东盟两种形式的身份竞争,即强制性威慑者与软性共识者、国际规则的威胁者与践行者的竞争。东盟本体安全困境也体现出新的发展动向:下沉至区域层次风险、隐蔽伪装性与强对抗性趋势。After the announcement of the establishment of AUKUS,ASEAN countries have reacted differently to it.On the basis of combing and integrating the theory of the ontological security dilemma,this paper revises the theory of the ontological security dilemma according to its practical adaptability,extracts the two endogenous variables of“threat perception”and“identity narrative”,and incorporates physical security threats into the framework of“threat perception”.In this way,this paper analyzes the differentiated responses of ASEAN countries and organizations to AUKUS based on these two key variables.Based on the structural analysis of the four response typologies in terms of threat perceptions at the external level and identity narratives at the internal level,this paper argues that the conflict between the differentiated responses of ASEAN countries to AUKUS and the overall responses of ASEAN organizations will not cause ASEAN to fall into an ontological security dilemma because the differences are still manageable and ASEAN countries still recognize the ASEAN community as a regional identity.In other words,ASEAN’s ontological security dilemma is not at the national and regional levels,but at the global level,where AUKUS as an external threat competes with the ASEAN Community for the global identity of“ASEAN centrality”.The essence of the current ASEAN ontological security dilemma is the“strategic stalemate”of this identity competition.The evolution of ASEAN’s ontological security dilemma has manifested itself in two forms of identity competition between AUKUS and ASEAN:the competition between the coercive deterrent and the soft consensus,and the competition between the threat and the practitioner of international rules.ASEAN’s ontological security dilemma is also character-ized by a new development trend:the risk of sinking to the regional level,the tendency of concealment and camouflage and strong antagonism.Accordingly,China should re-spond effectively to ASEAN’s external threats and inte

关 键 词：AUKUS 东盟本体安全困境 威胁认知 身份叙事 身份竞争 

分 类 号：D814.1[政治法律—国际关系]