人口老龄化、延迟退休与经济增长  

Population aging,postponing retirement and economic growth

作　　者：穆怀中[1] MU Huaizhong(School of Public Management and Institute,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第5期70-79,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(71731007);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国人口老龄化对经济增长影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD077)。

摘　　要：中国人口规模巨大的现代化与人口老龄化重合,由此面临着经济发展途径的科学选择。依据国民财富人口结构均衡分配原理,构建延迟退休年龄与劳动力供给增加进而对经济增长贡献及其协同性计量模型,探索延迟退休年龄联动劳动力供给变动与经济增长的协同性和政策选择。研究发现:(1)劳动力负增长高点和老年人口增长高点集中在2025-2035年,延迟退休年龄最佳时机在“十五五”规划期。(2)2000-2035年,延迟退休年龄增加劳动力供给系数为1.74%,劳动力增长优化系数为1.34%。(3)如果2025-2035年期间实施延迟退休到65岁,每年延迟6个月,10年间对人口老龄化影响的协同优化率为50%,其中延迟退休年龄对经济增长贡献率为0.50%,对经济增长贡献度为0.022个百分点。(4)延迟退休年龄具有积极应对人口老龄化的路径优化效应。在此基础上,提出相关对策建议。Chinese path to modernization is a modernization characterized by a huge population and coincides with the aging of population and negative labor force growth.Therefore,it faces scientific choices in the path and promotion of economic development.Based on the principle of balanced distribution of national wealth and population structure,this article constructs a mathematical model for the effect of postponed retirement on increased labor supply to economic growth,and explores the synergy and policy choices between delayed retirement age,labor supply and economic growth.The study finds that:(1)The peak of negative labor force growth and the peak of elderly population growth are concentrated between 2025 and 2035,positioning this period as the optimal timing for raising the retirement age during the“13th Five-Year Plan”.(2)From 2000 to 2035,the increase in the retirement age leads to a 1.60%increase in labor supply coefficient and a 1.11%optimization coefficient for labor force growth.(3)If delayed retirement to 65 years old is implemented between 2025 and 2035,with a delay of 6 months per year,the synergistic optimization rate of hedging population aging on labor force crowding over a period of 10 years is 50%.The contribution rate of delayed retirement age to economic growth is 0.46%,with a contribution rate of 0.021 percentage points to economic growth.(4)Raising the retirement age has a positive effect on optimizing the path of population aging.On this basis,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 劳动力负增长 延迟退休年龄 经济增长 协同性 

分 类 号：C979[经济管理—劳动经济]