智能制造计划可以跨越“生产率悖论”吗:来自智能制造试点示范项目的准自然实验  

Can intelligent manufacturing plan cross the“Productivity Paradox”:A quasi-natural experiment of chinese intelligent manufacturing demonstration project

作　　者：曹玉平[1] 侯迎信 CAO Yuping;HOU Yingxin(School of Economics,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院,河南开封475004

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第6期23-32,共10页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“人工智能发展驱动产业转型升级的机制、效应与对策研究”(21BJL062);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新人才支持计划(2023-CXRC-07);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队支持计划(2024-CXTD-03)。

摘　　要：新一代人工智能是新质生产力的典型代表和提升全要素生产率(TFP)的重要源泉。基于微观企业视角,首先对“生产率悖论”现象的出现与消失进行了一体化的理论机制阐释。随后,以我国工信部实施的智能制造试点为准自然实验,利用2011-2021年A股制造业上市公司面板数据,借助交错双重差分法实证评估了智能制造计划影响企业TFP的总效应、机制、异质性及动态影响。研究发现:(1)智能制造计划虽在短期内对企业TFP的影响不显著,但在长期和总体上提升了企业TFP;(2)机制分析表明,通过促进企业创新,智能制造计划在短期、长期和总体上均能提升企业TFP;智能制造计划在初期和总体上扭曲了企业资源配置,但这一扭曲效应随时间推移逐渐减弱,从而对企业TFP的影响呈现出U型演变特征;(3)异质性分析发现,企业人力资本结构或数字化水平越高,智能制造计划可以在总体上越大且在时序上越快地提升企业TFP。研究结果为从微观企业层面去理解“生产率悖论”现象的出现与否、内在机制、严重程度和持续时长提供了理论解释和经验证据,对探寻提升TFP的新动力源和微观机制具有政策启示意义。The new generation of artificial intelligence is a typical representative of new quality productivity and an important source of improving TFP.From a microenterprises perspective,this paper first provides the integrated theoretical mechanism for the emergence and disappearance of the“Productivity Paradox”phenomenon.Subsequently,using China’s intelligent manufacturing plan as a quasi-natural experiment,it empirically evaluates the overall effect,mediating mechanism,heterogeneity,and dynamic effect of the intelligent manufacturing plan on the total factor productivity(TFP)of enterprises with the help of staggered difference in differences method using the panel data of A-share listed manufacturing enterprises from 2011 to 2021.It shows that:(1)Although the intelligent manufacturing plan has no significant impact on the TFP of enterprises in the short term,it improves the TFP of enterprises in the long term and on the whole;(2)Mechanism analysis shows that intelligent manufacturing can enhance enterprise TFP in the short term,long term,and in general by promoting enterprise innovation,but it distorts enterprise resource allocation in the initial stage and in general,and this distortion effect gradually diminishes over time,so that the impact on firm TFP shows U-shaped dynamic characteristics;(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that,the higher the firm’s human capital structure or digitization level is,the more and the faster that intelligent manufacturing can enhance the firm’s TFP.This study provides a theoretical explanation and empirical evidence to understand the emergence,internal mechanism,severity,and duration of the“Productivity Paradox”phenomenon at the micro-firm level,and it also has policy implications for exploring the new power source and micro-driving mechanism of TFP improvement.

关 键 词：智能制造计划 全要素生产率 生产率悖论 交错双重差分 动态效应 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F062.4F273.1