教育对人口结构与经济增长的影响研究  

Research on the impact of education on population structure and economic growth

作　　者：管振 孙志军 GUAN Zhen;SUN Zhijun(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,CASS,Beijing 100006,China;Business School/Capital Institute for Economics of Education,BNU,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100006 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院/首都教育经济研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国软科学》2024年第6期79-89,共11页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以深化改革促进全体人民共同富裕”(22ZDA030)。

摘　　要：以往研究往往忽略了教育对人口结构的作用。将这一因素引入经济增长分析框架,在估计理论模型中相关参数的基础上,用数值模拟分析了教育对人口结构和经济增长的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现:第一,教育通过提升劳动力人力资本水平和经济体技术水平,促进劳动生产率的增长;第二,教育通过降低生育率和提升寿命,推动人口老龄化和提升人口抚养负担,并通过推迟毕业时间,降低劳动参与率;第三,教育对劳动生产率的促进作用强于对劳动参与率的抑制作用,从而促进人均收入的增长。总而言之,教育解释了人口结构的变动,但是并未加剧人口结构变动带来的经济压力。研究结果不仅扩展了教育经济影响的分析视角,也对完善我国公共教育和生育政策具有启示意义。Previous studies often overlooked the role of education in population structure.This article introduces this factor into the framework of economic growth analysis.Based on the estimation of relevant parameters in the theoretical model,it uses numerical simulation to analyze the effects and mechanisms of education on population structure and economic growth.The research findings are as follows:First,education promotes labor productivity growth by enhancing human capital and technological levels.Second,education promotes population aging and increases the dependency ratio through reduced fertility rates and increased life expectancy,while also reducing labor force participation through delayed graduation.Third,the promotion effect of education on labor productivity outweighs its inhibitory effect on labor force participation,thereby promoting per capita income growth.In conclusion,education explains changes in population structure but does not exacerbate the economic pressures brought about by these changes.This article not only expands the analytical perspective of the economic impact of education but also provides insights for improving public education and fertility policies in China.

关 键 词：教育 人口结构 老龄化 劳动参与率 经济增长 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济]