消费结构升级与出口产品质量提升  

Consumption Structural Upgrading and Export Quality Improvement

作　　者：蒋灵多 陈虹曦 陆毅[3] 张国峰[1] JIANG Lingduo;CHEN Hongxi;LUYi;ZHANG Guofeng(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;International Business Strategy Institute,University of International Business and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际商务战略研究院 [3]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第5期5-26,共22页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72373023,72273027);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903029)的资助。

摘　　要：促进消费升级与培育出口竞争新优势是当前中国经济持续稳定发展的两项重要发展战略。本文采用2010~2014年中国家庭动态跟踪调查数据库和海关数据库,从需求侧角度探讨居民消费结构升级对出口产品质量的影响。研究结果表明,居民消费结构升级可显著推动出口产品质量的提升,且估计结果十分稳健。机制分析显示,消费结构升级通过激发城市市场主体创新和城市产业结构升级推动了出口产品质量提升,且主要通过扩展边际的路径实现。异质效应分析表明,消费结构升级主要促进中、低技能技术密集型产品以及资本品和消费品的出口质量提升,且主要促进了中国对发达国家的出口产品质量提升,消费结构升级带来的出口质量提升效应主要体现在国内高收入地区。政府应进一步增强消费结构升级在推动经济结构转型方面的动能,通过消费升级来优化生产结构,进而推动中国经济高质量发展。Promoting consumption upgrading and fostering new export advantages are two important strategies for maintaining China's sustained and stable economic development. Given the decelerating global economic growth and escalating internal and external uncertainties,the Chinese economy confronts multifaceted risks and challenges. On the one hand,the role of consumption in driving economic growth continues to be pronounced,with domestic demand gradually becoming a distinct feature of China's highquality economic development. On the other hand,promoting stable and high-quality foreign trade is a crucial task for the current phase of economic stability and development,particularly under the critical rise of trade protectionism. Enhancing the quality of Chinese export products and fostering new competitive advantages in exports are urgent imperatives for sustaining the stability of China's exports. In August 2019,the National Development and Reform Commission convened the first meeting of the InterMinisterial Joint Conference on Improving the Institutional Mechanism for Promoting Consumption.During the meeting,it was emphasized that expanding and enhancing consumption can help transition economic growth dynamics and is an inevitable requirement for achieving high-quality development.Thus,the role of consumption upgrading in promoting the optimization and upgrading of economic structure cannot be overlooked.This study investigates the impact of the upgrading of the consumption structure on the quality of exports from the demand side based on the instrumental variable estimation,using the Chinese family panel database and customs database from 2010 to 2014. The results reveal that a percentage point increase in the proportion of urban expenditure on high-end consumer goods increases the relative quality of urban export products by four percentage points,and the estimation results are very robust. Thus,the upgrading of the consumption structure can significantly improve the quality of exports. This not only provides empirical

关 键 词：消费结构升级 出口产品质量 企业创新 产业结构升级 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]