城市建筑领域碳排放计算模型的构建及应用  

Construction and Application of Carbon Emission Calculation Model in Urban Construction Field

作　　者：王宇翔 曾勃 李海龙[1] 郭振伟[1] 魏慧娇 何莹 丁宏研 刘原鑫 WANG Yuxiang;ZENG Bo;LI Hailong;GUO Zhenwei;WEI Huijiao;HHE Ying;DING Hongyan;LIU Yuanxin

机构地区：[1]中国城市科学研究会,北京100835 [2]北京城市副中心管理委员会,北京101117 [3]通州区住房和城乡建设委员会,北京101100 [4]中国建筑科学研究院有限公司,北京100013 [5]北京通州投资发展有限公司,北京101117

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第4期55-60,共6页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：第八届中国科协“青年人才托举工程”项目(2022QNRC001)。

摘　　要：碳排放计算是实现双碳目标的坚实基础,建筑领域节能减碳是我国双碳战略的重要组成部分,因此构建城市建筑领域碳排放计算模型至关重要。梳理了影响建筑碳排放的关键因素,以北京城市副中心为例,构建了建筑领域的碳排放计算模型,通过情景分析预测了碳排放的变化趋势。结果显示,仅推行高节能率的节能建筑,碳排放将持续增长,至2035年达到924.94万t;单独依靠能源供应端或消费端的绿色化发展虽可有效抑制碳排放,但依然未见峰值,而协同发展下,不仅可将碳排放削减至612.10万t,且可实现在2034年碳达峰。Carbon emission calculation is a solid foundation for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Energy conservation and carbon reduction in the construction sector are important components of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.Thus,it is crucial to construct a carbon emission calculation model for urban construction field.This article comprehensively considers the key factors that affect building carbon emissions.Taking the Beijing urban sub center as an example,a carbon emission calculation model in the construction field is constructed,and the development trend of carbon emissions in the sub center construction field is predicted through scenario analysis.The results show that only implementing energy-saving buildings with high energy efficiency rates will continue to increase carbon emissions,reaching 9.2494 million tons by 2035.Although relying solely on the green development of energy supply or consumption can effectively suppress the increase in carbon emissions,there is still no peak.Under coordinated development,not only can carbon emissions be reduced to 6.121 million tons,but carbon peaking can also be achieved by 2034.

关 键 词：北京城市副中心 建筑领域 碳排放计算模型 碳达峰 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]