基于SDSM的兰江流域未来气候情景预估  

Prediction of future climate scenarios in Lanjiang River Basin based on SDSM

作　　者：杨国丽[1,2] 唐中楠 李军 YANG Guoli;TANG Zhongnan;LI Jun(Hebei University of Architecture,,Zhangjiakou 075000,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Water Quality Engineering and Comprehensive Utilization of Water Resources,Zhangjiakou 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北建筑工程学院,河北张家口075000 [2]河北省水质工程与水资源综合利用重点实验室,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2024年第5期554-561,共8页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：河北建筑工程学院院士工作站建设专项(编号:199A4201H);河北省教育厅青年基金项目(编号:QN2020424)。

摘　　要：在第2代加拿大地球系统模型(the second generation Canadian earth system model,CanESM2)中的3种典型浓度路径(representative concentration pathways,RCPs)情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下,基于统计降尺度模型(statistical down scaling model,SDSM)研究兰江流域未来年份温度和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:1)SDSM在兰江流域具有较好的适用性,各站点最高温度、最低温度、降水量的解释方差分别为70.62%~79.74%、69.61%~78.76%、28.56%~41.45%;2)3种RCPs情景下温度均呈上升趋势,且上升幅度随辐射强迫度上升而同步增大,至21世纪末,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下的最高温度分别较基准期上升0.06℃、1.22℃、2.76℃,最低温度分别较基准期上升0.35℃、1.15℃、3.01℃;3)RCP2.6情景下的降水量总体呈下降趋势,至2080—2100年下降0.98%,RCP4.5情景下的降水量呈先上升后下降趋势,至2050—2079年达到峰值,较基准期上升12.03%,RCP8.5情景下的降水量呈先下降后快速上升趋势,至2080—2100年上升38.08%。研究结果可为兰江流域内水资源管理、生态文明建设及社会经济可持续发展提供依据和理论支持。The SDSM(statistical down scaling model)is applied to predict the trends of temperature and precipitation in future years under three representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)of CanESM2(the second generation Canadian earth system model).The results show that:1)SDSM has good applicability in Lanjiang River Basin.The interpretative variances of maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation at each station are 70.62%-79.74%,69.61%-78.76%and 28.56%-41.45%,respectively.2)The temperatures under three RCPs scenarios all reveal a rising trend,and increase synchronously with the enhancement of radiation forcing.By the end of the 21st century,the maximum temperatures of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will increase by 0.06℃,1.22℃and 2.76℃,and the minimum temperature will increase by 0.35℃,1.15℃and 3.01℃,respectively,compared with the base period.3)In the RCP2.6 scenario,the precipitation indicates a general downward trend,decreasing by 0.98%between 2080 and 2100.In the RCP4.5 scenario,the precipitation will first increase and then decrease,reaching the peak between 2050 and 2079,increasing by 12.03%compared with the base period.In the RCP8.5 scenario,the precipitation will decrease first and then increase rapidly,increasing by 38.08%between 2080 and 2100.The research results can provide basis and theoretical support for water resources management,ecological civilization construction and social and economic sustainable development in Lanjiang River Basin.

关 键 词：SDSM CanESM2 气候变化 兰江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]