中国居民养老责任主体观念时空演化及影响因素研究——基于CGSS数据的实证分析  

Study on the spatio and temporal evolution of the perception of main responsibility for elderly care among Chinese residents and influencing factors:an empirical analysis based on CGSS data

作　　者：周曼慈 刘博 许辉 苏未 曾钧妍 马爽[1] ZHOU Manci;LIU Bo;XU Hui;SU Wei;ZENG Junyan;MA Shuang(School of Management,Beijing University of Chinese Medicine,Beijing 102401,China)

机构地区：[1]北京中医药大学管理学院,北京100105

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2024年第6期28-32,共5页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目(20GLB019);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2023-JYB-PY-004)。

摘　　要：[目的]梳理中国居民养老责任主体观念的现状、时空演变规律及其影响机制,为推动养老服务高质量发展提供参考。[方法]基于中国综合社会调查数据2012年、2015年、2018年、2021年数据,使用莫兰指数、HAPC模型等方法进行实证分析。[结果]2012年、2015年、2018年、2021年选择由子女养老的受访者占比分别为52.00%、49.84%、49.75%、55.81%。省域间养老责任主体观念存在正空间自相关,中西部地区更倾向于选择主要由子女负责养老。队列效应及时期效应显示选择子女以外作为养老主体的概率有逐渐增强的趋势。男性、身体健康、受教育程度低、无配偶、有代际陪同、未参加养老保险、社交频繁度一般、主观幸福度高的居民更倾向于选择主要由子女负责养老。[结论]家庭养老观念仍占据主流地位,居民养老责任观念出现区域差异,且随着时间推移发生不同程度的变化,个人、家庭、社会资本因素对居民养老责任认知均有显著影响。Objective This paper reviews the status quo,spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the perception of main responsibility for elderly care among Chinese residents and its influence mechanism,so as to provide the reference for the high-quality development of elderly care services.Methods Based on the data from Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2012,2015,2018 and 2021,the Moran's I and HAPC model were used for empirical analysis.Results The proportion of respondents who chose to be supported by their children in 2012,2015,2018 and 2021 was 52%,49.84%,49.75%and 55.81%,respectively.There was a positive spatial autocorrelation in the perception of main responsibility for elderly care between provinces and regions.Elderly people in central and western regions were more inclined to be supported by children.The cohort effect and period effect showed that the probability of choosing elderly care services other than supported by children increased gradually.Residents who were male,in good health,with low education level,without spouse,with intergenerational companions,without pension insurance,with average social frequency,and with high subjective well-being were more likely to choose to be supported by their children.Conclusions The concept of family-based elderly care is still in a dominant position.The perception of main responsibility for elderly care among residents shows regional differences and changes to different degrees over time.Individual,family and social capital have a significant impact on residents perception of main responsibility for elderly care.

关 键 词：养老责任认知 养老主体 影响因素 时空演变 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]