基于灰色关联度模型的红枣产业提质增效路径探索——以新疆生产建设兵团第二师36团为例  

Exploration of the Path of Improving Quality and Efficiency of Jujube Industry Based on Gray Correlation Model—Taking the 36 th Regiment of the Second Division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps as an Example

作　　者：付良焕 白祥 王凯豪 FU Liang-huan;BAI Xiang;WANG Kai-hao(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2024年第11期214-217,224,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2020SY009)。

摘　　要：基于灰色关联度模型收集2018—2021年新疆生产建设兵团第二师36团红枣产业发展相关数据,选取红枣产业的生产、加工、流通环节关键性指标构建影响红枣产业总产值的影响因素评价指标体系,分析产业链内部3个环节与红枣总产值的关联程度。结果表明,根据灰色关联度的实证分析,生产环节与红枣总产值的关联程度最大,其次是流通环节,关联度程度最小的是加工环节。生产环节中产量的多少将直接影响红枣产值的高低,生产成本投入的多少,决定了枣农最后获取纯收入的多少,从而间接地影响枣农未来继续种植红枣和对红枣投入的情况。综上,生产环节作为红枣产业发展的基础是影响当前36团红枣产业发展的主要因素。从各环节选取的指标来说,红枣的消费量关联度最低,对当前36团红枣产业发展带动程度低,因此,在今后的发展过程中,应重视红枣消费量在产业发展中的作用。Based on the gray correlation model,this paper collects the relevant data of the 36 group jujube industry from 2018 to 2021,selects the key indicators of the production,processing and circulation of the jujube industry to build the evaluation index system of influencing factors affecting the total output value of the jujube industry,and analyzes the correlation degree between the three links within the industrial chain and the total output value of jujube.The results show that,according to the empirical analysis of gray correlation degree,the production link and the total output value of jujube are the most related,followed by the circulation link,and the smallest correlation degree is the processing link.The amount of production in the production link will directly affect the output value of jujube,and the amount of production cost input determines the final net income of jujube farmers,which will indirectly affect the situation that jujube farmers continue to plant jujube and invest in jujube in the future.In conclusion,the production link as the basis of the development of the jujube industry is the main factor affecting the development of the current 36 th Regiment jujube industry.From the indicators selected in each link,the consumption of jujube is the lowest correlation,and the development degree of driving the current 36 th Regiment jujube industry is low.Therefore,in the future development process,we should pay attention to the role of jujube consumption in the industrial development.

关 键 词：红枣产业 灰色关联度 提质增效 发展路径 36团 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]