基于CALMET-WRF耦合的复杂地形下导线覆冰的精细化数值模拟研究  

Simulation study on ice thickness of transmission line in complex terrain based on WRF model coupling with CALMET downscaling model

作　　者：王帅 李劲松 原辉 芦竹茂 胡帆[2] 赵倩 WANG Shuai;LI Jinsong;YUAN Hui;LU Zhumao;HU Fan;ZHAO Qian(State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Research Institute,Taiyuan 030000,China;State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Company,Taiyuan 030000,China;State Grid UHV Transmission Co.of SEPC,Taiyuan 030000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网山西省电力公司电力科学研究院,山西太原030002 [2]国网山西省电力公司,山西太原030002 [3]国网山西省电力公司超高压输电分公司,山西太原030002

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2024年第3期509-520,共12页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国网山西省电力公司科技资助项目(520530220003)。

摘　　要：利用耦合了WRF模式的CALMET模型,对2022年1月5—10日山西省南部中条山区导线覆冰事件的天气背景场进行了数值模拟,在评估了WRF和CALMET对气象要素的模拟效果的基础上,分别利用WRF和CALMET模拟的气象场驱动Makkonen覆冰模型,对本次导线覆冰过程进行了数值模拟,得到了如下结论:1)相比于WRF模式的模拟结果,CALMET降尺度后的气象场能更符合实际地形影响下近地面温度场和风场的分布规律,其模拟的近地面低温区(气温<0℃)范围较WRF模拟范围更大。2)CALMET的气温均方根误差整体较WRF模式减小0.5~1℃,相关系数由0.5~0.8提升至0.6~0.85;风速的均方根误差较WRF减少了1 m/s,相关系数较WRF提升0.2,说明WRF模式结合CALMET模拟气象场更加接近真实观测结果。3)利用CALMET降尺度场驱动覆冰模型能较好地反映微尺度地形下电线积冰的时空分布特征,各杆塔模拟的覆冰厚度偏差较WRF显著减小了2 mm,且降低了模式对覆冰启动的滞后时间。Wire icing is a disastrous phenomenon that can harm the operation of the power system,and has been identified a meteorological disaster focused on by the government,electric power,and meteorological departments.Accurately predicting conductor icing is crucial for ensuring the safe operation of transmission lines and reducing disaster losses caused by wire icing.In mountainous environments,the prediction accuracy of power line ice accumulation depends on the downscaling capability of numerical models for meteorological fields,but the research on coupled dynamical downscaling methods for icing prediction is insufficient.In this study,by using the CALMET downscaling model coupled with the WRF model,the meteorological field of the icing event in the Zhongtiao Mountain of southern Shanxi Province during the period of 5—10 January,2022 was simulated and evaluated.On this basis,these meteorological fields were used to drive the Makkonen model to simulate the conductor icing process under different topographies.The simulation results of the WRF and CALMET models were examined separately,and the conclusions are as follows:1)Compared with the WRF model,the meteorological field downscaled by the CALMET model can more appropriately represent the distribution of the near-surface temperature and wind fields under the complex topography.The low-level wind field simulated by the CALMET model during the icing period is more consistent with the distribution pattern of slope surface flow and terrain bypass flow in actual topography.Meanwhile,the simulated cold region(air temperature<0℃)has a larger extent than that of the WRF simulation,which is more consistent with the observation.2)The air temperature and wind field simulated by the CALMET model show high agreement with the observation.The root mean square error(RMSE)of air temperature in CALMET is reduced by 0.5—1℃and the correlation coefficient is improved from 0.5—0.8 to 0.6—0.85 compared with the WRF model.In addition,the RMSE of wind speed in CALMET is reduced by

关 键 词：WRF模式 CALMET模式 复杂地形 覆冰厚度 动力降尺度 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]