Aeolus水平径向风速产品资料同化在台风预报中的应用研究  

Application of Aeolus Horizontal Line-of-Sight Product Data Assimilation in Typhoon Forecasting

作　　者：季凌潇 鲍艳松[1,2] 温渊[3] 李欢 丁佳丽 JI Lingxiao;BAO Yansong;WEN Yuan;LI Huan;DING Jiali(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration/Joint Laboratory of Meteorological Environment Satellite Engineering and Application,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;School of Atmospheric Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;Shanghai Satellite Engineering Institute,Shanghai 200240;China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center,Mianyang 621000)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室/气象环境卫星工程与应用联合实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044 [3]上海卫星工程研究所,上海200240 [4]中国空气动力研究与发展中心计算空气动力研究所,绵阳621000

出　　处：《大气科学》2024年第3期893-905,共13页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：上海航天科技创新基金资助项目SAST2019-043、SAST2020-032;南京信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练计划XJDC202110300325。

摘　　要：为评价星载激光测风雷达产品资料同化对台风预报的影响,以2020年台风“黑格比”和2019年台风“利奇马”为例,选用Aeolus卫星的水平径向风速产品,开展星载激光测风雷达资料同化及其对台风预报影响研究。首先基于ERA5再分析资料对Aeolus产品进行统计检验和偏差订正,并统计各高度层观测背景差的均方差作为观测误差用于同化试验。然后通过WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecast Model Data Assimilation)模式同化Aeolus产品并利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecast Model)模式开展预报试验。试验结果表明,Aeolus产品精度较高,统计所得各层观测误差在3~5 m s^(-1)范围且随高度的升高而增大,订正后资料满足三维变分同化无偏假设;在台风“黑格比”和“利奇马”期间同化该产品能使模式具备更加合理的环流形势,能够有效提高对台风“黑格比”和“利奇马”路径及强度的预报效果。To evaluate the impact of spaceborne lidar product data assimilation on typhoon forecasts,this paper studied the assimilation of Aeolus horizontal line-of-sight data and its impact on typhoon forecasts for typhoon Hagupit occurred in 2020 and typhoon Lekima happened in 2019.First,we conducted a statistical test and deviation correction on Aeolus products and used the statistical root mean square error for each height layer as the observation error for the assimilation.Subsequently,Aeolus products were assimilated using the Weather Research and Forecast model data assimilation system(WRFDA),and the prediction test was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecast model(WRF).The experimental results show that Aeolus products are highly accurate,and the observation error for each layer after correction is in the range of 3–5 m/s,with the error increasing with altitude.The corrected data satisfy the unbiased assumption of three-dimensional variational assimilation.Assimilating Aeolus products during Typhoons Hagupit and Lekima can make the model show a more reasonable circulation pattern and effectively improve the typhoons’track and intensity forecasts.

关 键 词：Aeolus卫星 水平径向风速 资料同化 台风预报 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]