中国近30年短时极端降水特征分析  

Analysis of the Characteristics of Short-Term Extreme Precipitation in China in the Last 30 Years

作　　者：赵煜飞[1] 张强[1] 鞠晓慧[1] 肖栋 杨和平 陈杰 廖捷[1] 邓悦 ZHAO Yufei;ZHANG Qiang;JU Xiaohui;XIAO Dong;YANG Heping;CHEN Jie;LIAO Jie;DENG Yue(National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Cites’Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai,China Meteorological Administration,Shanghai 200030;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning 530000)

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海200030 [3]广西壮族自治区气象信息中心,南宁530000

出　　处：《大气科学》2024年第3期1144-1156,共13页Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目42090033;中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2022J050;国家自然科学基金项目42175053。

摘　　要：由于观测资料的限制,以往对于日尺度以下的短时极端降水特征和短时极端降水阈值的研究较少。本文基于中国气象局最新研制的1991~2021年中国2464个台站逐小时降水资料,分析了全国1 h、3 h降水频率特征,采用百分位法分别统计1 h和3 h极端降水阈值,探究了中国短时极端降水气候特征。分析结果表明四川、贵州、湖南、江西、福建和浙江等省的部分台站1 h降水频率较大,可达12%,西北地区1 h降水频率普遍偏低,大部分台站低于3%。1991~2021年期间,1 h、3 h极端降水频率呈减少趋势。共有64.7%的站3 h极端降水频率线性趋势与1 h极端降水频率线性趋势一致。我国降水极值和极端降水阈值空间特征明显,1 h降水极端降水阈值基本呈东南大、西北小的空间特征,广东、广西、海南阈值相比我国其他地区偏大。海南、广东、广西和江苏省1 h降水历史平均极值超过80 mm h^(-1),其中海南省平均极值最高,达102.7 mm h^(-1)。Because of the limitations of observational data,only very few studies have investigated the characteristics and thresholds of short-term extreme precipitation below the daily scale in the past.Based on the hourly precipitation data during 1991–2021 from 2464 stations in China,which is newly developed by China Meteorological Administration,this paper analyzes the frequency characteristics of the 1-h and 3-h precipitation in China,uses the percentile method to count the 1-h and 3-h extreme precipitation thresholds,and explores the climatic characteristics of short-term extreme precipitations in China.The analysis results show that the hourly precipitation frequency is relatively high(up to 12%)at some stations in Sichuan,Guizhou,Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,and Zhejiang provinces and is generally low(less than 3%)at most stations in Northwest China.From 1991 to 2021,the frequency of 1-h and 3-h extreme precipitation shows a decreasing trend.Among the stations,64.7%demonstrate linear trends for the 3-h extreme precipitation frequency,which is in phase with that of the 1-h extreme precipitation frequency.The spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation and the extreme precipitation threshold in China are obvious.The extreme precipitation threshold of the 1-h precipitation shows large spatial characteristics in Southeast China and small in Northwest China.Compared with other regions in China,Guangdong,Guangxi,and Hainan have larger thresholds.The historical average extreme value for the 1-h precipitation in Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,and Jiangsu provinces exceeds 80 mm h^(-1),with Hainan province exhibiting the highest average extreme value,reaching 102.7 mm h^(-1).

关 键 词：地面观测 降水 质量控制 日变化 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]