易地扶贫搬迁户返贫风险因素识别及防范策略--基于武陵山区典型项目区的调查研究  

Identification of Risk Factors and Countermeasures for Poverty Return of Relocated Households in PovertyAlleviation:An Investigation of the Typical Project Area in Wuling Mountain Region

作　　者：王兆林 王洁仪 WANG Zhaolin;WANG Jieyi(Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of Yangtze River,Key Research Instituteof Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Public Management,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]教育部人文社科重点研究基地成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学公共管理学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《西南大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期166-179,共14页Journal of Southwest University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“西南地区农村闲置宅基地市场化风险识别、影响机制与配置路径研究”(42271280),项目负责人:王兆林;国家社会科学基金项目“三权分置改革中宅基地使用权经营性收转增值收益分配研究”(20BJY120),项目负责人:王兆林。

摘　　要：巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,提升脱贫地区整体发展水平是“十四五”时期的重要任务。作为中国脱贫攻坚的“头号工程”和“标志性工程”,易地扶贫搬迁地区正处于巩固脱贫成果的脆弱性治理阶段。为剖析贫困户在易地搬迁后因各类因素诱发的返贫风险问题,本文以武陵山区四省市典型易地扶贫搬迁乡镇为研究区域,基于可持续发展理论和生计恢复力理论,构建涵盖“自然-社会-经济”三个层面的可衡量易地扶贫搬迁群众返贫风险因素的测评指标体系,运用Critic权重法、综合指数测算法和因子贡献度分析法,客观测算各级指标的权重及返贫风险得分,定量分析安置地区搬迁群众返贫风险程度及致贫因素。结果发现:第一,基于综合指数测算法,调研区域返贫风险程度分布呈现“中间大两头小”的橄榄型态势,表明重构发展环境后,仍存在不稳定因素导致返贫风险的客观存在。第二,基于因子贡献度分析法的计算结果,调研区域易地搬迁群众返贫风险因素的次序依次为:自然因素>经济因素>人力因素>保障因素>产业因素>家庭因素。基于此,提出加强教育培训、提高发展意识、完善社会保障、建立产业防线、强化金融支持和建立预警系统六点政策建议,以巩固脱贫攻坚成果,防范易地扶贫搬迁脱贫农户陷入返贫困境,解决搬迁后“稳得住”的问题,有效衔接乡村振兴。Consolidating and continuing the achievementsof poverty eliminationand promoting the overall development of impoverished areas are important tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan period.As the“Number One Project”and“Landmark Project”of China's poverty alleviation,targeted impoverished areas through relocation are at a stage of vulnerability management that aims to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.To analyze the problems of poverty-returning caused by various risk factors after the relocation of poor households,based on the theory of sustainable development and livelihood resilience,this paper takes the typical relocated towns in four provinces and cities in Wuling Mountain Region as the research area,and constructs a valuation index system that covers the three levels of“nature,society,economy”to measure the risk factors of poverty-returning of the relocated people.Moreover,the CRITIC Method,the Synthetical Index Method,and the Factor Contribution Analysis Method are used to objectively calculate the weights of various indicators and the risk of returning to poverty.Meanwhile the risk level of returning to poverty and the causing factors of the relocated people in resettlement areas are quantitatively analyzed.The research has the following findings.First,based on the Synthetical Index Method,the distribution of the risk of returning to poverty in the research area shows an olive-shaped trend of“large in the middle and small at both ends”,which indicates there are still unstable factors that cause the risk of returning to poverty after the reconstruction of the development environment.Second,based on the Factor Contribution Analysis Method,the order of risk factors for poverty-returning among the relocated people in the research area is as follows:natural factors>economic factors>human factors>security factors>industrial factors>family factors.In accordance with these,this paper proposes six recommendations on policy to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation,including st

关 键 词：易地扶贫搬迁 返贫风险 识别与防范 Critic权重法 武陵山区 

分 类 号：F752.4[经济管理—国际贸易]