基于靴襻渗流模型的国际信息通信产业贸易前景分析  

On Analysis of Trade Prospect of International ICT Industry Based on Bootstrap Percolation Model

作　　者：李旸[1] 刘颖[1] LI Yang;LIU Ying(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2024年第3期104-110,共7页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：四川省软科学项目(2021JDR0134)。

摘　　要：信息通信技术(ICT)产业是国际数字经济发展的核心产业,交互贯通的国际ICT产业贸易网络能够客观反映出ICT产业贸易的时空分异格局。本文运用复杂网络分析方法探测国际ICT产业贸易网络的基础拓扑特征及中心性特征,同时运用靴襻渗流模型讨论ICT产业贸易的危机传播过程。研究发现,国际ICT产业整体贸易强度有所扩大,呈现出明显的区域集中化趋势,但贸易联系的整体活跃度、贸易范围和网络传输效率都明显降低;主要ICT产业贸易国(地区)整体的危机传染力高于以往,防控核心贸易国(地区)的点危机与预防核心板块的区域性联动危机相结合将是阻止危机全球蔓延的有效举措。The information and communication technology(ICT)industry is the core sector in the development of the global digital economy.The trade network of the interactive international ICT can objectively reflect the spatiotemporal pattern of ICT trade.This paper used complex network analysis to detect the topological and centrality characteristics of the international ICT trade network,and used the Bootstrap Percolation Model to discuss the crisis spreading process of ICT trade.It was found that the current overall trade intensity of the international ICT industry expanded,showing a clear regional concentration trend,but the overall dynamism of the trade links,the trade scope and the network transmission efficiency reduced significantly.Furthermore,the overall crisis contagion of major ICT trading countries and regions was higher than before.Therefore,a combination of preventing and controlling point crises in core trading countries and regions with preventing regional linkage crises in core sectors will be an effective measure to prevent the global spread of crisis.

关 键 词：ICT产业贸易 复杂网络 靴襻渗流 危机传播 前景分析 

分 类 号：F746.17[经济管理—国际贸易]