基于SD模型的南昌市可持续发展多情景模拟  

Multi-scenario Simulation of Sustainable Development in Nanchang City Based on SD Model

作　　者：李鑫 LI Xin(Urbanization and Urban-Rural Planning Research Center of Jiangsu,210036,Nanjing,PRC)

机构地区：[1]江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心,南京210036

出　　处：《江西科学》2024年第3期511-519,共9页Jiangxi Science

摘　　要：为模拟南昌市不同发展情景下的可持续发展变化态势及特征,并为其可持续发展决策提供参考,运用系统动力学的原理和方法,构建了包括经济、社会、资源、环境和政策5个子系统的南昌市可持续发展评估模型。结果表明,至2030年,南昌市的城市综合可持续性呈现上升趋势,但资源利用和生态环境子系统可持续性增长较慢。综合协调情景模式为南昌市未来较优的发展选择,今后可通过以高质量发展为导向,调整产业结构,加大研发投入,提高资源利用水平,加大生态环境保护与综合整治力度等工作,可极大促进综合协调情景下的南昌市可持续发展。With the help of the principles and methods of system dynamics,this paper constructs the evaluation model of sustainable development of Nanchang city,which includes five subsystems:economy,society,resources,environment and policy to simulate the changing situation and characteristics of sustainable development under different development scenarios in Nanchang,so as to provide reference for its sustainable development decision-making.The results show that by 2030,the urban comprehensive sustainability of Nanchang shows an upward trend,but the sustainable growth of resource utilization and eco-environment subsystem increased slowly.The comprehensive coordination scenario model is a better choice for the future development of Nanchang city.In the future,by taking high-quality development as the guidance,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing R&D investment,improving the level of resource utilization,strengthening eco-environmental protection and comprehensive renovation,it can greatly promote the sustainable development of Nanchang city under the comprehensive and coordinated scenario.

关 键 词：系统动力学 可持续发展 多情景模拟 南昌市 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]