基于模糊DEMATEL-超效率DEA的可再生能源发电技术综合效益评估方法  

Comprehensive Benefits Evaluation of Renewable Energy Development Based on Fuzzy DEMATEL-Super-efficiency DEA

作　　者：李鹏[1] 文淼 董存 桑丙玉 王加浩 李克成 LI Peng;WEN Miao;DONG Cun;SANG Bingyu;WANG Jiahao;LI Kecheng(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China;National Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Xicheng District,Beijing 100031,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210003,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北省保定市071003 [2]国家电力调度控制中心,北京市西城区100031 [3]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,江苏省南京市210003

出　　处：《电网技术》2024年第6期2346-2355,I0032,共11页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家电网有限公司科技项目(4000-202316071A-1-1-ZN)。

摘　　要：“双碳”目标下,各类可再生能源发电技术发展迅速,综合权衡不同可再生能源发电方案的综合效益对可再生能源的优化设计具有重要意义。综合考虑经济效益、环境效益、能源效益和社会效益4个层面,提出了一种基于模糊决策试验和评价实验(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)与超效率数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis,DEA)模型的可再生能源发电技术综合效益评估方法。该方法分为投入-产出指标体系构建和综合评估2个阶段。首先,利用三角直觉模糊数处理模糊评价信息,将其与DEMATEL相结合量化各指标之间相互影响关系,基于指标间逻辑分析结果建立投入-产出评估指标体系。然后,基于超效率DEA模型对各可再生能源发电方案进行评估排序,结合投入冗余和产出不足分析结果给出各方案的针对性改善建议,以期为进一步选择和确定可再生能源产业发展战略提供参考。最后以某省10类可再生能源发电单元为研究对象,基于所提研究方法进行综合评估和分析,并与多准则妥协解排序法和熵权法进行对比分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。Under the dual-carbon target,the power generation technology with various renewable energy resources has developed rapidly.It is of great significance to assess the comprehensive benefits of different renewable energy power generation schemes for the optimal design of the energy structure.In this paper,a comprehensive benefit evaluation of renewable energy plans based on the fuzzy decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)and the super-efficiency data envelopment analysis(DEA)is proposed by taking the economic benefit,environmental benefit,energy benefit and social benefit into consideration.This method has two stages:the construction of the input-output index system,and the comprehensive evaluation.Firstly,this paper uses the triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to process the fuzzy evaluation information,and combines it with the DEMATEL to obtain the mutual relationships between the indexes.Based on the causal analysis between the indexes,a scientific input-output evaluation index system is established.Then,this paper evaluates and sorts the renewable energy power generation schemes based on the super-efficiency DEA model,and gives some targeted improvement suggestions for each of the schemes based on the analyses of the input redundancy and output deficiency,which provides a reference for further selection and determination of renewable energy development strategies.Finally,taking the ten types of renewable energy in a certain province as the research object,the comprehensive evaluation and analysis are carried out based on the research method proposed in this paper.The proposed method is compared with the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija IKompromisno Resenje and the entropy weight method to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：可再生能源 综合效益评估 投入-产出评估指标体系 决策试验和评价实验 三角直觉模糊数 超效率数据包络分析 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]