考虑分布式电源时空相关及电动汽车充电负荷分布特性的有源配电网概率潮流  

Probabilistic Load Flow of Active Distribution Network Considering Spatial-temporal Correlation of Distribution Generation and Distribution Characteristics of Electric Vehicle Charging Load

作　　者：徐艳春[1] 李思佳 汪平 MI Lu XU Yanchun;LI Sijia;WANG Ping;MI Lu(Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Station(China Three Gorges University),Yichang 443002,Hubei Province,China;Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,Texas A&M University,Texas 77840,USA)

机构地区：[1]梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北省宜昌市443002 [2]得克萨斯农工大学电气与计算机工程系,美国得克萨斯州77840

出　　处：《电网技术》2024年第6期2550-2563,I0084,I0085,共16页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51707102)。

摘　　要：目前分布式电源(distribution generation,DG)和电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)充电负荷等随机变量接入电力系统时时空特性考虑不足,会导致概率潮流计算偏离实际。因此该文提出了考虑DG时空相关及EV分布特性的有源配电网概率潮流模型。首先,利用场景生成建立时空相关的风电、光伏出力概率模型;然后,考虑路网约束和用户心理,建立考虑EV时空分布特性的负荷概率模型;最后,以Nataf变换结合奇异值分解处理相关性输入变量,运用三点估计法对概率潮流进行计算,通过Cornish-Fisher级数拟合得到累积分布函数。以IEEE-33节点系统进行测试,利用所提模型分析了DG时空相关性和EV分布特性对配电网潮流的影响。结果表明DG时空相关性主要影响系统的波动性,EV分布特性主要影响系统的运行特性。该文研究可为新型配电网的安全运行提供理论指导。At present,the spatial and temporal characteristics of the random variables,such as the distribution generation(DG)and the electric vehicle(EV)charging load,are not considered enough when connected to the power system,which has led to the deviation of the probabilistic load flow calculation from the reality.Therefore,this paper proposes a probabilistic load flow model of the active distribution network considering the DG spatial-temporal correlation and the EV distribution characteristics.Firstly,the probability model of the wind power and photovoltaic output is established by using the scenario generation.Then,considering the road network constraints and the users’psychology,a load probability model considering the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the EV is also established.Finally,the correlation input variables are processed by the Nataf transform combined with the singular value decomposition.The three-point estimate method is used to calculate the probabilistic load flow,and the cumulative distribution function is obtained by the Cornish-Fisher series fitting.The IEEE-33 node system is used to test the proposed model,and the influence of the DG spatial-temporal correlation and the EV distribution characteristics on the power flow of the distribution network is analyzed.The results show that the spatial and temporal correlation of the DG mainly affects the fluctuation of the system,and the distribution characteristics of the EV mainly affect the operation characteristics of the system.The research results may provide a theoretical guidance for the safe operation of the new distribution network.

关 键 词：分布式电源 电动汽车充电负荷 场景生成 时空特性 有源配电网 概率潮流 Nataf变换 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]