双阳水管NS分量异常分析及其预报效能评估  

Analysis of Abnormalities and Evaluation of Forecasting Efficacy for NS Component of Water-Tube Tiltmeter at Shuangyang Seismic Station

作　　者：唐春呈 张仁鹏[1] 焉恒琦 张帆[1] 乔天罡 TANG Chuncheng;ZHANG Renpeng;YAN Hengqi;ZHANG Fan;QIAO Tiangang(Jilin Earthquake Agency,Jilin Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林省地震局,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《防灾减灾学报》2024年第2期57-62,共6页Journal of Disaster Prevention And Reduction

基　　金：吉林省地震局青年科技发展课题(JZQ-202301)。

摘　　要：利用中国地震局《震情会商技术方法业务应用推荐清单(2022)》中列装的异常判定方法,对双阳台DSQ型水管倾斜仪NS分量2008-2023年观测数据进行处理,整理归纳出现的异常,利用R值评分对该测项预报效能进行评估,结果显示:速率分析法R值为0.6,且通过R值检验,可以用于该测项的预测预报工作;破年变分析法和趋势转折法虽未通过R值检验,但都是对应率高、漏报率和虚报率低,也为该测项的预测预报工作提供了参考。The NS component of the DSQ water-tube tiltmeter at Shuangyang Seismic Station was analyzed for anomalies and assessed for forecasting efficacy using the abnormal determination method recommended in the Technical Method Business Application Checklist for Seismic Meetings by the China Earthquake Administration(2022).Processing observational data from 2008 to 2023,anomalies were identified and summarized.The forecast effectiveness of this measurement was evaluated using the R value scoring,with results indicating a score of 0.6 for the velocity analysis method,deemed suitable for predictive forecasting.While the phase change analysis and trend reversal methods did not pass the R value test,they exhibited high correspondence rates with low rates of missed and false reports,offering insights for forecasting efforts related to this measurement.

关 键 词：水管倾斜仪 震情会商技术方法 异常分析 预报效能评估 R值检验 

分 类 号：P315.72[天文地球—地震学]