黔东南州水稻连阴雨保险纯费率厘定  

Determination of Pure Insurance Rates of Rice Continuous Rain Damage in Qiandongnan Prefecture

作　　者：文建川 陈家辉 龙凌云 唐凤 周智晖 莫平孝 梁平 WEN Jian-chuan;CHEN Jia-hui;LONG Ling-yun;TANG Feng;ZHOU Zhi-hui;MO Ping-xiao;LIANG Ping(Congjiang Meteorological Bureau,Qiandongnan 557400,China;Cengong Meteorological Bureau,Qiandongnan 557800;Qiandongnan Meteorological Bureau,Qiandongnan 556000)

机构地区：[1]从江县气象局,黔东南557400 [2]岑巩县气象局,黔东南557800 [3]黔东南州气象局,黔东南556000

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2024年第6期669-677,共9页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：黔东南州科技计划项目(黔东南科合基础[2023]07号);贵州省气象局登记制项目(黔气科登[2022]08-09号)。

摘　　要：水稻生育中后期至收获阶段的连阴雨是影响其生长和晾晒的限制环境,研究连阴雨保险纯费率,对于降低农业气象灾害风险具有重要意义。本研究利用黔东南州16个县(市)1980-2020年水稻单产数据及气象资料,构建水稻连阴雨减产模型,基于拟合优度检验法,从6种分布模型中筛选各县(市)最优模型估算连阴雨灾害概率,结合连阴雨概率及减产率厘定保险纯费率。结果表明:黔东南州水稻连阴雨综合指数与减产率呈显著的线性关系,线性表达式为Yr=6.66CRI+4.12,连阴雨综合指数越大,水稻减产率越高。连阴雨发生概率随灾害程度加重而降低,各县(市)有30%~50%的概率发生轻度连阴雨,中度和重度连阴雨概率则分别为10%~30%、0~3%;海拔较高的麻江、黄平发生中度、重度连阴雨的概率较其余地区偏高。16个县(市)水稻连阴雨保险纯费率分别在7.38%~10.47%,西北部麻江、黄平两个县保险纯费率较高,达9.5%以上。Continuous rain is a limiting factor affecting the growth and drying of rice from the middle and late stages of growth to the harvest stage.It is of great significance to study the pure premium rates of continuous rain insurance for reducing the risk of agro-meteorological disasters.In this study,rice yield data and meteorological data from 16 counties(city)in Qiandongnan prefecture from 1980 to 2020 were used to construct rice yield reduction model based on continuous rain.Based on the goodness of fit test method,the optimal models of each county(city)were selected from 6 distribution models to estimate the probability of continuous rainy disaster.The pure premium rates were determined by combining the probability of continuous rain and the yield reduction rate.The result showed that the linear relationship between continuous rain index and yield reduction was Yr=6.66CRI+4.12,and the yield reduction of rice was increased with the increase of continuous rainy composite index.The probability of continuous rain was decreased with the increase of disaster degree,each county(city)had the 30%-50%probability of mild continuous rain,and the probability of moderate and severe continuous rain were 10%-30%and 0-3%,respectively,the probability of moderate and severe continuous rain were higher in high elevation areas such as Majiang and Huangping.The pure premium rates of 16 counties(city)were between 7.38%and 10.47%,and the pure premium rates of Majiang and Huangping in the northwest were higher,above 9.5%.

关 键 词：水稻 连阴雨 减产率 保险纯费率 概率 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F326.11