改建公路交通量分析及预测研究  

Study on traffic volume analysis and prediction for highway renovation

作　　者：韩真真 孔祥逢 王明涛 HAN Zhenzhen;KONG Xiangfeng;WANG Mingtao(Road Development Center in Hanting District,Weifang City,Shandong Weifang 261100 China;Shandong Huayuan Highway Survey and Design Co.,Ltd,Shandong Weifang 261061 China;College of Transportation,Shandon University of Science and Technology,Shandong Qingdao 266590 China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊市寒亭区公路事业发展中心,山东潍坊261100 [2]山东华远公路勘察设计有限公司,山东潍坊261061 [3]山东科技大学交通学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《山东交通科技》2024年第2期104-107,124,共5页

摘　　要：以潍坊市X005灶朱路G206至朱里段改建工程为例,在交通量观测、OD调查等交通调研的基础上,运用增长率法、弹性系数法、Fratar模型、重力模型等进行交通量分析及预测。结果表明:该改建工程中小客车、小货车比重较大,项目影响区内发生量、吸引量比重较大的交通小区是潍坊市城区、昌邑市城区、寒亭区等地区;未来该项目所在区的中型车和小货车占比有下降趋势,汽车列车和大型车占比有上升趋势。Taking Weifang X005 Zaozhu Road(G206 to Zhuli Section)reconstruction project as an example.Based on various traffic surveys including origindestination(OD)surveys and traffic volume observation,methods such as the growth rate method,elasticity coefficient method,Fratar model,and gravity model were employed for the analysis and prediction of traffic volumes.The results indicate that within this reconstruction project,a significant proportion of small cars and small trucks is observed.Traffic zones within the project impact area that exhibit a substantial volume of origin and attraction include Weifang urban area,Changyi urban area,and Hanting district.Furthermore,it is anticipated that the proportion of large vehicles and car trains will increase in the future,while the proportion of small trucks and medium-sized vehicles is expected to decrease.

关 键 词：交通量分析 交通量预测 OD矩阵 Fratar模型 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]