中国西南地区粮食增产潜力、影响因素与策略研究  

Research on the potential,influencing factors and strategies of grain production increase in Southwest China

作　　者：郭耀辉[1] 况嘉欣 杜兴端[1] 刘宗敏[1] 王永志 GUO Yaohui;KUANG Jiaxin;DU Xingduan;LIU Zongmin;WANG Yongzhi(Institute of Agricultural Information and Rural Economics,Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chengdu 610066,China;Sichuan Natural Resources Science Academy,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所,四川成都610066 [2]四川省自然资源科学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2024年第6期843-850,共8页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：四川省农业科学院1+9科技攻关项目(编号:1+9KJGG009);四川省乡村振兴重点帮扶县农民农村共同富裕路径研究(编号:2023JDR0125);“研究阐释习近平总书记来川视察重要指示精神”成都市哲学社会科学规划专项重点项目(编号:2023A20)。

摘　　要：西南地区是中国粮食生产战略大后方,提高西南地区粮食产能对确保中国粮食安全和产销平衡具有重要意义。在剖析西南地区粮食产业发展现状和存在问题基础上,采用Tobit模型分析西南地区粮食增产因子的影响系数,并探究西南地区粮食未来增产潜力。结果显示:(1)西南地区粮食生产呈现“播面减少”“产量增加”的双向走势,生态环境脆弱、耕地细碎化及粮经争地矛盾等给粮食增产带来巨大挑战;(2)影响西南地区粮食增产的主要因素依次为复种指数(影响系数0.42)、机械化程度(影响系数0.397)、科学施肥量(影响系数0.346)和财政支农力度(影响系数0.134);(3)到2027年,西南地区粮食产量有望达到7 852万t,5年间预计增长2.5%。基于上述结论,建议采取推广粮经复合模式、加强良种良技研发应用、加大对生产经营主体的扶持力度、建立安全预警机制等措施提升西南地区粮食产量。The Southwest region is the strategic rear of China′s grain production,and improving its grain production capacity is of great significance in ensuring China′s food security and production sales balance.Based on analyzing the current development status and existing problems of the grain industry in the Southwest region,this paper used the Tobit model to analyze the impact coefficient of grain yield factors in the Southwest region,and to explore the potential for future grain production increase in the Southwest region.The results showed that:①The current grain production in the Southwest region showed a dual trend of“reduced planting area”and“increased yield”.Fragile ecological environment and fragmented arable land have also constrained grain increase.②The main factors influencing grain yield increase in Southwest China were multiple cropping index(0.42),mechanization level(0.397),scientific fertilization(0.346),and financial support for agriculture(0.134).③Under the premise of adopting scientific response measures,it was expected that the grain production in the Southwest region would reach 78.52 million tons by 2027.That was an increase of 2.5%in five years.On the above,this paper put forward some suggestions to adopt measures such as promoting the grain economy composite model,strengthening the research and application of high-quality seeds and technologies,increasing support for production and operation entities,and establishing a safety warning mechanism to increase grain production in the Southwest region.

关 键 词：粮食安全 增产策略 影响因素 西南地区 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]