旅游发展与乡村振兴耦合协调效应及动态关系研究——基于城乡联动视角  

Study on the coupling coordination effect and dynamic relationship between tourism development and rural revitalization——Based on the perspective of urban-rural linkage

作　　者：舒小林 张倩兮 何亚兰 闵浙思 单淑幸 SHU Xiaoin;ZHANG Qianxi;HE Yaan;MIN Zhesi;SHAN Shuxing(School of Business Administration,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学工商管理学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2024年第6期925-934,共10页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:19BJL055);2023年度贵州省社科创新团队“贵州旅游产业化发展战略”;贵州财经大学研究生科研项目(编号:2024ZXSY019)。

摘　　要：旅游发展和乡村振兴之间的耦合协调效益及动态关系研究对乡村振兴战略路径选择具有重要意义。基于城乡联动视角,以贵州作为研究区域,在对旅游发展与乡村振兴动态关系及耦合机理分析的基础上,运用综合评价函数、耦合协调模型和VAR模型,探讨旅游发展和乡村振兴耦合协调效应及动态关系。研究发现:(1)贵州旅游发展可分为发展起步期、加速发展期、井喷发展期和震荡调整期;乡村振兴综合值也分为夯实基础、波动调整、稳健发展和再调整4个时期,总体均呈上升趋势;(2)旅游发展和乡村振兴协调类型形成“失调阶段(1999-2011)→濒临失调阶段(2012-2015)→勉强协调阶段(2016-2022)”的良性演化轨迹,2020-2022年受新冠肺炎疫情影响,耦合协调度有所下降;(3)旅游发展和乡村振兴之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,1999-2022年存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,即乡村振兴对旅游发展有促进作用,旅游发展短期受自身影响显著,中长期受到自身和乡村振兴双重影响,乡村振兴受自身影响显著,受旅游发展影响微弱。The study on the coupling coordination benefits and dynamic relationship between tourism development and rural revitalization has significant implications for the strategic path selection of rural revitalization.Taking Guizhou as the research area from the perspective of urban-rural linkage,this study analyzed the dynamic relationship and coupling mechanism between tourism development and rural revitalization.By using comprehensive evaluation function,coupling coordination model,and VAR model,this study explored the coupling coordination effects and dynamic relationship between tourism development and rural revitalization.The research findings were as follows:①The development of tourism in Guizhou could be divided into four stages:The initial stage of development,the accelerated stage of development,the explosive stage of development,and the period of fluctuation and adjustment.The comprehensive value of rural revitalization could be divided into four periods:Solid foundation,fluctuation adjustment,stable development,and readjustment,all showing an overall upward trend.②The coordination type of tourism development and rural revitalization had formed a virtuous evolution trajectory of“imbalance stage(1999-2011)→near dysfunction stage(2012-2015)→barely coordinated stage(2016-2022)”.However,due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,the coupling coordination degree between tourism development and rural revitalization had declined in 2020-2022.③There existed a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between tourism development and rural revitalization.From 1999 to 2022,there was a unidirectional Granger causality relationship,indicating that rural revitalization had a promoting effect on tourism development.Tourism development was significantly influenced by itself in the short term,and influenced by both itself and rural revitalization in the medium and long term.Rural revitalization was significantly influenced by itself and weakly influenced by tourism development.

关 键 词：城乡联动 旅游发展 乡村振兴 VAR模型 脉冲响应 耦合协调度 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]