黄河沿线九省区水资源承载力评价及时空变化特征  

Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Temporal-spatial Variation Characteristics of Nine Provinces Along the Yellow River,China

作　　者：邹宗华 赵斌[1,2,3] 陈洁[1,2,3,4] 钱会 高燕燕[1,2,3,4] 李春燕 ZOU Zong-hua;ZHAO Bin;CHEN Jie;QIAN Hui;GAO Yan-yan;LI Chun-yan(School of Water and Environment,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Academy of Yellow River Sciences of Shaanxi Province,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [3]长安大学水利部旱区生态水文与水安全重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [4]陕西省黄河科学研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地球科学与环境学报》2024年第3期351-363,共13页Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42341102,42272289);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(300102293205)。

摘　　要：评估水资源与社会经济、生态环境之间的协调性可为黄河水资源利用和管理提供指导。通过构建基于水资源、社会经济和生态环境3个子系统的水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用VIKOR法对黄河沿线九省区2008~2021年水资源承载力进行评价,并引入Mantel检验法分析了水资源承载力类型及其影响因素。结果表明:黄河沿线九省区水资源承载力在2008~2021年呈现持续提升趋势,且随着社会经济发展和生态环境保护的加强,水资源承载力水平在2015年后显著提升;水资源承载力整体上呈现西部强、东部次之、中部弱的空间格局,其中青海最强,宁夏最弱。各省区水资源承载力类型各不相同,青海、甘肃和陕西属于水资源禀赋型,宁夏和内蒙古属于水资源-社会经济型,四川、山西、河南和山东属于综合型。水资源禀赋是黄河沿线九省区水资源承载力的本底,且产水模数、人均水资源量、降雨深是水资源子系统的主控因子,但对社会经济和生态环境子系统依赖度高,需在产业升级、用水效率提高和生态环境保护等方面加强。Evaluating the coordination among water resources,social economy,and ecological environment could offer guidance for the utilization and management of water resources in the Yellow River.An evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity was constructed based on the subsystems of water resources,social economy,and ecological environment.The VIKOR method was utilized to assess the water resources carrying capacity of nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2008 to 2021.Additionally,the Mantel test method was introduced to analyze the categories of water resources carrying capacity and their influencing factors.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of nine provinces along the Yellow River have exhibited a continuous upward trend from 2008 to 2021.With the enhancement of social and economic development and ecological environment protection,the level of water resources carrying capacity has notably increased after 2015.Spatially,there is a pattern of strong capacity in the west,followed by the east,and weaker capacity in the middle.Among them,Qinghai is the strongest,and Ningxia is the weakest.The types of water resources carrying capacity vary in each province.Qinghai,Gansu and Shaanxi fall under the category of water resources endowment type,while Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are classified as water resources-social economy type.Sichuan,Shanxi,Henan,and Shandong are categorized as comprehensive type.Water resources endowment forms the basis of water resources carrying capacity in nine provinces along the Yellow River.Factors such as water production modulus,per capita water resources,and precipitation depth are key determinants of the water resources subsystem.Moreover,there is a high reliance on the social economy and ecological environment subsystem,which necessitate enhancement through industrial upgrading,improving water use efficiency,and ecological environment protection.

关 键 词：水资源 承载力 指标体系 熵权法 VIKOR法 时空动态 Mantel检验 黄河 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]