“双碳”目标下中国工业部门氢能需求量测算及供给结构路径优化  

Towards China's"dual carbon"goals:Industrial hydrogen demand estimation and supply structure optimization

作　　者：李忻颖 唐旭[1] 许传博 王敏[1] 马美艳 LI Xinying;TANG Xu;XU Chuanbo;WANG Min;MA Meiyan(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院 [2]华北电力大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《天然气工业》2024年第5期146-156,共11页Natural Gas Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“多重目标下中国油气生产的锁定碳排放与解锁策略研究”(编号:72174206)。

摘　　要：在推进“双碳”目标实现的过程中,中国的能源系统迫切需要加快转型。工业部门由于其特有的对传统化石能源燃料和原料的依赖,发展过程中存在大量难减排的行业,氢能以来源丰富、绿色低碳、应用广泛等优势为工业部门提供了一条切实可行的深度脱碳路线。为此,构建了3阶段模型框架,测算了中国工业部门重点行业氢能需求量,最后探讨了氢能供给结构的优化路径。研究结果显示:①工业部门用氢主要集中于钢铁、水泥、甲醇及合成氨等难以通过电气化实现脱碳的关键行业;②从需求侧来看,在参考情景、低渗透情景及高渗透情景下,2060年工业部门的氢能需求量分别为2509.1×10^(4)t、5037.8×10^(4)t、6865.7×10^(4)t;③从供给侧来看,氢能供给结构将从以化石能源为主的灰氢逐步过渡到以可再生能源为主的绿氢;④随着绿氢的应用比例增高,预计在2020—2060年期间,氢能可累计替代煤炭41.7×10^(8)t标准煤、石油11.3×10^(8)t标准煤,累计碳减排贡献比例有望达16.7%。结论认为,中国工业部门减少化石能源需求量和碳排放量需要重点依托绿氢产业的高质量发展。Under the national drive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon"),it is imperative for China's energy system to accelerate the pace towards low-carbon transition.The industrial sector,with high dependency upon traditional fossil fuels and materials,is very hard to decarbonize in so many fields.Luckily,abundant,green and scalable hydrogen offers a feasible solution to the problem.As such,a three-stage model was set up to estimate the hydrogen demand of key industrial industries,and to explore optimized pathways towards hydrogen supply.The results show that:1)major hydrogen consumption comes from steel and iron,cement,methanol and ammonia synthesis,all being hard-to-debate by electrification process;2)under the reference scenario,high penetration and low penetration scenarios,the estimated hydrogen demand in 2060 is 2509.1×10^(4)t,5037.8×10^(4)t,6865.7×10^(4)t,respectively;3)the supply structure will shift to green hydrogen(renewables)from gray hydrogen(fossil energy);4)with increasing application of green hydrogen,it's estimated that between 2020 and 2060,hydrogen would replace coals of 41.7×10^(8) tce and petroleum of 11.3×10^(8) tce,reducing 16.7%of carbon emissions.In summary,scaling up hydrogen development is essential for China's industrial sectors to cut energy demand and carbon emissions.

关 键 词：中国 工业部门 氢能需求 供给结构 能源替代 减排贡献 

分 类 号：TE991.1[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]