未确知条件下多枚导弹打击不规则面目标的毁伤效果评估  

Evaluation of damage effect against irregular area target by multiple missiles under uncertainty

作　　者：王志辉 胡剑文 朱晓敏 张亚军[2] WANG Zhihui;HU Jianwen;ZHU Xiaomin;ZHANG Yajun(Strategic Evaluation and Consulting Center,Academy of Military Science,Beijing 100091,China;Army Academy of Artillery and Air Defense(Nanjing Campus),Nanjing 211132,China;College of Systems Engineering,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China)

机构地区：[1]军事科学院战略评估咨询中心,北京100091 [2]陆军炮兵防空兵学院南京校区,江苏南京211132 [3]国防科技大学系统工程学院,湖南长沙410073

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2024年第3期213-221,共9页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(61872378)。

摘　　要：在信息缺乏的情况下,如何提高对多枚导弹打击不规则面目标毁伤效果评估的可信度是导弹作战运用研究的重难点。通过蒙特卡罗方法建立给定参数下的面目标毁伤效果评估模型;采用信度分布函数对该问题的未确知性进行评估,评估结果显示毁伤效果未确知性较高;基于信度熵,分析导弹各个属性的未确知性对毁伤效果未确知性的影响;通过针对性减小影响大的属性的未确知性,迭代减小毁伤效果的未确知性。仿真实验结果表明面目标有效毁伤率的未确知范围得到显著减小。该研究能够有效指导毁伤效果评估工作,减小其中的不确定性。In the case of lack of information,how to improve the reliability of the evaluation of the damage effect of multiple missiles against irregular surface targets is a major difficulty in the research of missile operation.An evaluation model for the damage effect on area targets with given parameters was established using the Monte Carlo method.Belief degree distribution functions were employed to assess the uncertainties in the problem,and the assessment results showed a high level of uncertainty in the damage effect.Based on belief entropy,the influence of the uncertainty in each attribute of the missile on the uncertainty of the damage effect was analyzed.By specifically reducing the uncertainty of attributes with significant impact,the uncertainty of the damage effect was iteratively decreased.Simulation results show that the range of uncertainty for the effective damage rate of the area target is significantly reduced.This research can effectively guide the work of damage assessment and reduce its uncertainty.

关 键 词：毁伤评估 面目标 蒙特卡罗方法 未确知性 信度熵 

分 类 号：TB114.1[理学—运筹学与控制论]