水稻高温热害强度时空变化特征与预报模型构建  

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and forecast model construction of high-temperature heat damage intensity in rice

作　　者：徐敏 徐经纬[2] 徐萌 徐忆菲 XU Min;XU Jingwei;XU Meng;XU Yifei(Climate Center of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210019,China;School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Sciences&Technology(NUIST),Nanjing 210044,China;Jintan National Climatic Observatory,Jintan 213200,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省气候中心,南京210019 [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [3]金坛国家气候观象台,金坛213200

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2024年第10期97-106,共10页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：江苏省气象局揭榜挂帅项目(KZ202302);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024Q003)。

摘　　要：构建定量表征水稻高温热害强度的指数,揭示时空变化特征,并建立中长期预报模型,准确预报高温热害发生的强度趋势对提前部署抗高温工作至关重要。该研究充分考虑高温热害累积效应,结合致灾指标,构建了强度指数,并采用Fisher分割法对其进行了客观化分级;根据中长期天气预报原理,基于海温和大气环流指数两类预报因子,利用二维寻优技术,分别构建了水稻高温热害强度指数预报模型,并进行了验证和比较。结果表明:1)2010年以来江苏省水稻高温热害年频次增加且强度明显增强,其中2013年、2022年高温热害强度均达最高等级4级,高温热害强度指数存在明显的年代际差异,从20世纪90年代开始江苏省水稻高温热害强度逐年代增强,空间上呈现出高温热害强度指数年代累加值不低于10的区域从南向北随年代逐步扩大,至21世纪10年代已扩展至淮北西部,其中淮河以南水稻高温热害强度增强明显,为历年代最强。2)构建的两类水稻高温热害强度指数预报模型可在7月初进行预报,预报提前量均为1~2个月,总体都能较好地模拟出强度指数的年际波动特征,但模拟值波动幅度与实际值存在不同程度的差异。3)通过拟合检验和试报检验,预报因子经过最优化相关技术处理后,能有效增加因变量和自变量的相关度,提高预报模型的模拟效果,其中海温因子经最优化处理后的高温热害强度指数预报模型效果最佳,可在农业气象业务服务中进行应用。研究结果对主动防御高温灾害和保障粮食安全具有重要科学意义和参考价值。An evaluation index is crucial to quantitatively represent the intensity of high-temperature heat damage in rice.A medium and long-term forecasting model can be established to accurately forecast the trend of high-temperature heat damage,and then deploy heat-resistance measures in advance.In this research,spatiotemporal evolution was used to fully consider the cumulative effects of heat damage.The disaster indicators were combined to build an intensity index,and then objectively grade using the Fisher partition.According to medium and long-term weather forecasting,two types of forecasting factors were selected as the sea surface temperature(SST)and atmospheric circulation indices.The forecasting models were finally constructed and then validated for the index of high-temperature heat damage intensity using two-dimensional optimization.The results show that:1)There was a significant increase in the annual frequency and intensity of high-temperature events and heat damage on the rice crops since 2010.Notably,the intensity of high temperature and heat damage reached the highest grade 4 in 2013 and 2022.While it was only in grade 3 in 2016,2017,and even as far back as 1992.There was a significant interdecadal difference in the heat damage intensity index.There was an increase in the intensity of rice high-temperature heat damage in the province each year since the 1990s.In spatial patterns,the areas with a cumulative value in the heat damage intensity index of≥10 were gradually expanded from south to north,extending to the west of Huai Bei in the 2010s.A significant increase was found in the intensity of heat damage south of the Huai River,indicating the strongest in history.2)The prediction models were constructed for two kinds of high-temperature heat damage intensity index in early July using Pacific SST and 88 atmospheric circulation indexes.At the same time,Jiangsu rice had just been transplanted,and there were still 1-2 months before the stage of rice joining and heading.The forecast lead was 1-2 months after

关 键 词：预报 强度指数 水稻高温热害 二维寻优 海温 大气环流指数 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学] S2[农业科学—农业基础科学]