轨道交通对交通客流参数的技术效应分析  

Analysis of Technical Effects of Rail Transit on Traffic Passenger Flow Parameters

作　　者：叶丽敏[1] 邱美华[1] 施群[1] YE Li-min;QIU Mei-hua;SHI Qun(Jinshan College of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学金山学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《山东工业技术》2024年第2期42-47,共6页Journal of Shandong Industrial Technology

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划项目(FJ2017B090);平潭综合实验区交通与建设局建设科技研究开发项目(KH220018A);福建农林大学金山学院应用型学科建设项目(yx190401)。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通与公交车在整个城市居民出行中占据主要地位,地铁的开通运营势必会对沿线公交及整个城市公交客流产生重要影响,进而需要重新进行优化配置公交线路,使其与地铁融合衔接,从而更加方便居民出行。本文以哈尔滨市作为研究对象,基于历年哈尔滨市公交车客流数据,借助MATLAB软件,运用灰色预测GM(1,1)方法,研究哈尔滨市公交车客流增长变化模型,在地铁开通后,公交实际客流与预测客流进行对比,结合常住人口的变化,可以分析地铁开通运营对公交车客流的具体影响,同时为其他城市公交车在地铁开通后的优化配置提供相关建议与借鉴。Urban rail transit and buses occupy a major position in the travel of urban residents,the opening and operation of the subway will inevitably have a significant impact on the passengerflow of public transportation along the line and the entire city.Therefore,it is necessary to optimize and reconfigure the bus routes to integrate and connect with the subway,making it more convenient for residents to travel.This article takes Harbin City as the research object,based on past years of bus passengerflow data in Harbin City,using MATLAB software and grey prediction GM(1,1)method,to study the trend model of bus passengerflow growth in Harbin City,After the opening of the subway,the actual passenger flow of public transportation is compared with the predicted passenger flow,and combined with changes in the permanent population,the specific impact of subway operation on bus passenger flow can be analyzed.At the same time,relevant suggestions and references can be provided for the optimization configuration of buses in other cities after the opening of the subway.

关 键 词：轨道交通 公交车 影响效应 灰色预测 优化调整 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]